Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 12 July 2009 /

For the 77th time in history, Tour riders are expected to ascend the Col du Tourmalet. Tobias Gourlay feels for them.

Le Tour leaves the Pyrenees today via the Category One Col d'Aspin and then the fearsome Hors Category Col du Tourmalet. There follows a difficult descent and a long downhill run-in to Tarbes, which together make it unlikely that the overall contenders will risk their chances attacking on the Tourmalet. If this is right, it is worth thinking about the [2.52] available for Rinaldo Nocentini, who clung on to and finished with the Astana riders yesterday, to retain the yellow jersey for another day.

Like yesterday, when this column highlighted the value in Sandy Casar's price - the 26-1 shot was pipped on the line by Luis Leon Sanchez, but offered ample opportunity for a single-digit lay to in-play bettors - it seems likely that climbers from the second rank of riders will be the ones trying to breakaway. The favourite is David Moncoutie again ([12.0]).

There is a chance that sprinters who can handle the two big ascents (not Mark Cavendish, unfortunately) will be able to regroup in time for a bunched finish, but it is a couple of breakaway specialists who stand out to this column. Cyril Dessel, who was also mentioned yesterday, didn't show himself then, but is attractively priced at [60.0] for today's stage. Sylvain Chavanel, an aggressive rider who descends very well, has some appeal at [18.5].

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