Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 18 July 2009 /

Today's stage is all about the green jersey, reckons Tobias Gourlay.

Yesterday, Heinrich Haussler battled through 200km of heavy rain and over two Category One climbs to win the 13th stage of this year's Tour de France. Happily for this column, Rinaldo Nocentini kept pace with Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong to hang on to of the yellow jersey, which should still be his at the end of today's much flatter course.

There are a couple of Category Three climbs, but they should not trouble Mark Cavendish - a [2.5] favourite today - in the way that yesterday's Col du Platzerwasel and Col du Firstplan did. The Manx Missile finished 118th and re-lost the green jersey to Thor Hushovd, who finished sixth, and is a [16.0] second-favourite today.

Although today's stage has the profile of one designed for a breakaway and comes at a time in the Tour when the sprinters's teams often ease up a little, such is the closeness of the competition between the Briton and the Norwegian that their respective teams, Columbia and Cervelo, will be as keen as ever to arrange a bunch finish. Moreover, this is the last flat stage before Paris in eight days' time.

If Cavendish is serious about winning the Points Classification, and his efforts in intermediate sprints a couple of days ago suggest he is, he will be desperate to win today. If he has not been worn down by the cumulative impact of the last couple of weeks, he will have a British record ninth stage victory to his name by late afternoon.

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