Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2009 /

Mark Cavendish has matched his four stage wins of last year, and Tobias Gourlay thinks he can go one better today.

Mark Cavendish. Chapeau.

It is said that close contests make for the best betting opportunities. That's often the case, but getting [3.30] on Mark Cavendish to win yesterday's stage must go down as a great opportunity. And sprint finishes at this year's Tour have not been close contests. Cannonball has won all five; he only has four stage wins because the peloton allowed Thomas Voeckler to escape on Stage Five.

Today's stage is more undulating than the two that have gone immediately before it, but contains nothing that will part Rinaldo Nocentini from the maillot jaune. There are five Category Four climbs and one Category Three about 40km from the end. Nothing that Cavendish can't cope with either; he starts a [2.46] favourite.

The breakaway artists like this part of France because there is not the wind they often have to ride through in the south or in the mountains, and there are a few winless teams - AGR2R, Cofidis, Euskatel, Francaise Des Jeux, I could go on - who need to start justifying their existence to their sponsors, so expect a few people to go off the front of the peloton at different points.

The sprinters' teams have organised the flat stages very well thus far, and only Voeckler has made a success of his breakaway. The green jersey is very much a live competition, despite Cavendish's dominance over Thor Hushovd in finishing straights. Although the Manxman has said he is now focused primarily on winning in Paris in 11 days' time, he likes the idea of winning there in green, so Columbia should be going all-out to deliver him a fifth stage win today and keep him ahead of the Norwegian in the points classification. And who's going to stop them?

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