World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 April 2011 /

The kings of the green baize are preparing for the ultimate snooker joust at the Crucible and Paul Krishnamurty has a selection of bets to maintain interest throughout the tournament

While this season has seen various promising new tournaments and format innovations, nothing is ever likely to compare to the next fortnight for us longstanding snooker fans. Seventeen days of televised action, involving all the world's best players competing for the biggest prize in the game, equates to punting heaven. Given a plethora of match and tournament betting options, the most pressing immediate question is 'where to start?'. Here's my pre-tournament punting portfolio.

10pts 'Yes' in 'First Time Champion' market @ [2.2]
Ideally, the plan is to have interests in each section of the draw that could potentially run for all 17 days, ensuring that every match matters. Thanks to an anomaly in the draw, the 'First Time Champion' market offers precisely such an option. The odds here about 'Yes' are not necessarily wrong, merely reflecting the cumulative value of each non-world champion's outright odds. Rather, the order in which these matches will be played presents an outstanding trading opportunity, offering much greater reward than risk.

There are eight former champions at the Crucible, with four in each half of the draw. However by far the two weakest, Stephen Hendry and Peter Ebdon, are in the same quarter and will face a huge task getting past the two big guns, Mark Selby and Ding Junhui. Given that from this section, only this pair are trading below [85.0] to win the tournament, we can be relatively confident of getting at least one strong semi-finalist. If for instance Selby were to get that far, he alone wouldn't be much bigger than the [2.2] odds we're taking about every non-champion combined.

Moreover, there is a good chance that the top quarter also produces a non-champion. Reigning champion Neil Robertson is the man to beat here, but the Aussie will be well aware that no player has ever successfully defended their first title at the Crucible. Moreover, fate has conspired to hand him the toughest possible first-round draw. Judd Trump is easily the best qualifier, widely tipped as a superstar since childhood and fresh off his breakthrough victory at the China Open. The only other previous champion in this section is Graeme Dott, a [34.0] chance who is worth taking on.

Next, the third section only contains one former champion. Mark Williams is favourite to win this section, but as with Robertson, the first round draw has done him no favours, with Ryan Day representing a significant obstacle.

Finally, the overwhelming likelihood is that the bottom quarter will be won by a former champion, but it's worth waiting to see which one of John Higgins, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Shaun Murphy emerges before re-assessing the trade. So in short, we can realistically hope to have three non-champions in the semi-finals, and it would be disappointing to get fewer than two.


4pts Mark Selby to win the tournament @ [7.4]
1pt Ali Carter to win the tournament @ [30.0]
1pt Matthew Stevens to reach the final @ [30.0]
More specifically, I'm having one pick in each of the top three quarters, while leaving that brutal bottom section alone. Selby is marginally preferred to Ding as a potential champion. Ever since reaching the final as a qualifier in 2007, the 'Jester from Leicester' has been spoken of as a future world champion, with the ideal temperament for this 17-day marathon. He's not always enjoyed the best of luck since, being edged out in a classic quarter-final in 2008 by Higgins and in last year's semi by Dott. With a relatively easy start from which to build form and momentum, he has an ideal opportunity to finally deliver.

If history repeats itself and Robertson's title defence ends early, the principal beneficiary could be Ali Carter, whose last two Crucible bids were halted by the Aussie. Carter has a fairly straightforward opener against Dave Harold, and should progress whilst other seeds flounder. Indeed, he's becoming something of a Crucible specialist, reaching the final, quarters and semis on his last three visits.

Speaking of Crucible specialists, Matthew Stevens is no forlorn hope to add to a formidable tournament record. Stevens must rate one of the unluckiest men never to win this title, twice losing close finals and another couple of semi-finals. Granted, the last of those runs came back in 2005, but Matthew's form has picked up recently. He arrives in Sheffield with a golden opportunity to regain a top-16 place and resurrect his career in the process. Given that Stevens has always been a much better player over longer matches, this season's improved results in shorter formats bode well.


Name the Finalists
1.5pts Selby v Murphy @ [26.0]
1.5pts Ding v Murphy @ [34.0]
1pt Selby v Maguire @ [50.0]
1pt Ding v Maguire @ [50.0]
Another useful trading strategy to potentially last the fortnight involves building a few positions in the 'Name the Finalists' market. The idea is to pick a batch of players who are fancied to at least make the second week, by which time savers can be afforded. As mentioned above, one of the semi-finalists looks likely to be either Selby or Ding, so that pair are selected along with one pick from each of the two bottom quarters. Here I'm going for Stephen Maguire and Shaun Murphy, because both are plausible candidates, fancied to at least get through their opening matches. The combined odds of all four trades is around [9.0], so by getting at least one semi-finalist in each half, the bet could be closed for profit.


Highest Break - Player
1pt Ronnie O'Sullivan @ [8.2]
0.5pt Stephen Maguire @ [21.0]
Given that 'Yes' in the 'Maximum Break?' market is trading at just [2.1], there is obviously a strong chance that 147 will also be the highest break of the tournament, in which case maximum specialist Ronnie O'Sullivan could be over-priced at [8.2]. He's won this market three times in the past decade, twice after hitting a maximum, although had to share the prize when Carter repeated the feat in 2008. Of course these odds are a response to the Rocket's poor run of recent form in lesser tournaments, but even during this miserable campaign, O'Sullivan managed to notch another televised maximum at the World Open. I wouldn't want to lay such odds about Ronnie making a 147 at the Crucible, let alone in a market that could be won with a lesser break.

Maguire also looks a fair bet at [21.0]. The Glaswegian can be incredibly frustrating, especially in the latter stages of tournaments, but remains one of the most prolific breakbuilders around.

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