World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 April 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty has an interesting system for playing the 147 market

Of all the speciality markets, this one has been my favourite over the years. Certainly in each of the last four years, I've successfully followed a strategy that has banked a profit irrespective of whether a maximum has been scored during the championship.

Statistically, [2.8] isn't a big price. There have been five in the last 16 years, so theoretically the correct odds are [3.2]. Some might argue that the standard of snooker has improved in the meantime, and we have seen three 147s from Ronnie O'Sullivan and Stephen Maguire this season already which probably justifies the slightly lower odds.

But my thinking here has less to do with the actual outcome and more concerned with the fluctuations in this market over 17 days. Its a stone-cold certainty that on more than one occasion, someone will have a good crack at a 147. And naturally from the point where somebody has potted eight reds and blacks, the market is forced to react. All it takes is an O'Sullivan, Maguire or Higgins to get into that situation and provided the balls aren't set impossibly, the maximum becomes no more than a rapidly reducing [3.0] chance.

So here's my strategy. To start, have an opening bet at [2.8] to keep throughout the tournament, with no intention to trade back. Then as each day goes by without a maximum, slowly accumulate the position as the odds drift further. But once the second bet has been placed, start placing lay orders at shorter odds to eliminate risk and ultimately bank profit.

Hopefully then, somebody will have a run at a 147 and force the odds below [2.0] in-running. Remember though it's important to close these bets out once the odds go short. I can think of several televised situations where a 147 has looked a formality only for a shock miss on the colours. Most recently at this year's Grand Prix, Peter Ebdon messed up a routine clearance on the pink. And more famously, Ken Doherty missed the closing black of its spot in the Masters final. I don't recall checking Betfair that night to see how low it was matched, but surely it was 1.01.

Selection:

Yes @ [2.8]

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