Baize Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 December 2008 /

The unpredictable nature of the world number one combined with weaknesses in one side of the draw could leave an opening for a certain break-building machine from Northern Ireland who already looks like the finished article, says Paul Krishnamurty.

With the game's second most important event starting in Telford this weekend, snooker punters are faced with a familiar conundrum. Will the game's greatest player, Ronnie O'Sullivan, turn up fully focussed, psychologically stable and justify prohibitive odds of [3.6]? Or will his temperamental frailties surface as they did when he walked out of his quarter-final match in this event two years ago?

Ronnie's supporters can make a strong case on two grounds. Firstly, his complete dominance of both this and the World Championships last term, and more recently, an extremely impressive thrashing of his closest rival Mark Selby in last Sunday's Premier League final. On that basis, its hard to quibble with that [3.6] quote but that still doesn't make it good value, if only because of the nature of the sport. Even if he does defend his title, the overwhelming likelihood is that at some stage during the five rounds, Ronnie will go behind in a match, forcing that price to drift.

And then there's the draw. His opening match against Rory Mcleod looks a banker, but there are potential pitfalls awaiting in every round on route to the final. Likely second-round opponent Joe Perry has only lost their last two encounters in the deciding frame, and should they progress that far, Ryan Day and Selby will make for very tough quarter and semi-final opponents. If he faces Selby, it will be a repeat of last year's classic semi which Ronnie won 9-8 with a maximum 147 break in the deciding frame.

The fact these two can't both reach the final should settle any doubt over the best value betting strategy. With all the big names in the other half of the draw carrying doubts about their form, the plan must be to find decent-priced candidates with a view to laying back later in the tournament. Remember, if Ronnie loses in one of the earlier rounds, the price of every remaining player will shorten considerably. And by concentrating on the bottom half of the draw, we needn't worry about him until the final.

In particular, the third quarter looks wide open, mainly because the two highest rated candidates are vulnerable. Shaun Murphy has been a rock of consistency over the last two years, but has yet to make any impact this season. Defeats in the last two events to journeymen Mike Dunn and Adrian Gunnell represent a very low standard, and offer plenty of hope for Murphy's low-ranked first-round opponent Martin Gould. As for Stephen Hendry, I seriously doubt he is still capable of winning a title, even after his surprise progression to the World Championship semis in April. He always seems to throw in one really bad match nowadays, and looks weak under pressure.

These weaknesses could leave an opening for two of the game's brightest young talents to further enhance their growing reputations, Mark Allen and Judd Trump. Still just a teenager, Trump has been tipped for the top since childhood, and he has started to justify the hype already. After beating O'Sullivan to reach the semis in Glasgow, Trump went on to win the Masters qualifiers, forcing his price to start plunging here.

However, while I don't doubt his long-term potential for a moment, I feel Trump is under-priced on the snooker I've seen. He still looks very naive in the tactical department.

Alternatively, Allen increasingly looks the finished article and makes much greater appeal at around [30.0]. The Northern Irish youngster is a break-building machine, and seems to be improving with each event. He seems very likely to be winning his first ranking title in the near future. Allen comfortably beat Trump last time in Bahrain, and would be fancied to do so once again were they to meet in the quarters at Telford as expected.

Allen's promising bid for glory in Bahrain ended with defeat to eventual winner Neil Robertson in the semis, and this strikes me as a likely repeat semi-final. Robbo is genuinely world-class on his day, winning twice in 2007 before a disappointing run last season. The young Aussie has been quite honest about those struggles, blaming himself for a lack of discipline, and on the evidence of Bahrain would appear to be ready to challenge the game's best once again.

Though he starts at around [23.0], that recent form makes Robertson a more attractive betting proposition than shorter-priced rivals in that fourth quarter such as John Higgins, Ding Junhui and Stephen Maguire, none of whom have been at their best to date this year.

Recommendation:

Mark Allen at [30.0]
Neil Robertson at [23.0]

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