Baize Betting / David Hendon / 10 December 2008 /

David Hendon looks ahead to snooker's UK Championships - the second most important event in the sport's calendar - which gets underway in Telford on Saturday.

As anyone who saw Ronnie O'Sullivan's interview on BBC's Inside Sport will testify, his tumultuous life often reads like a Mario Puzo novel: the father inside for murder, past addictions to drink and drugs, broken relationships, violence and heartache. Despite all this, I expect O'Sullivan to be the Godfather at the UK Championship in Telford this week.

For all the controversial incidents that have peppered his career, O'Sullivan remains the best player in the game. The UK Championship is played over a longer format than most tournaments with matches best of 17 frames instead of first to five. Someone is going to have to play very well - or the Rocket will have to have a mental implosion - to stop him going a long way.

He first won the UK title a week before his 18th birthday in 1993. Last year, he won it for a fourth time. A week ago he scooped the £75,000 top prize in the Premier League. For a player whose mood swings are notorious, he seems reasonably settled and a recent reconciliation with his girlfriend, Jo, may be the key to that. With his mind together and his game rock solid O'Sullivan, the favourite at [3.55], has a golden chance to end 2008 on a real high.

So who can stop him in Telford? Perhaps the most surprising thing about the UK Championship is that, since becoming a ranking event 24 years ago, there has only ever been one shock winner. That was Doug Mountjoy, thought to be a fading force at the age of 46 in 1988. Unlike the World Championship, the UK tends to follow the formbook. Forget the rankings, it's usually someone who has had a good year who picks up the trophy. For this reason, Mark Selby is worth supporting at [7.6].

Selby, who won the Masters and Welsh Open earlier in the year, would have been in the UK final 12 months ago but for O'Sullivan's 147 break in the deciding frame of their semi-final. He has what looks like a tough opening round assignment in twice former champion Mark Williams, but the Welshman has not played consistently well for a couple of years and will find it hard to challenge Selby over 17 frames.

Waiting in the second round would be either Graeme Dott, who has slumped to 45th in the provisional rankings and whose practice time has been limited having just become a father for the second time, or Ken Doherty, who has won just two matches all season. One word of warning, though: Selby would have to play O'Sullivan in the semi-finals again if they both get that far.

The best qualifier is surely Judd Trump, a lightening fast potter from Bristol who, at 19, has the potential to be a top player for many years to come. He has qualified for all five of this season's ranking events and beat O'Sullivan on the way to the Grand Prix semi-finals in October. His first round opponent is Mark King, who plays the kind of spoiling game that might do for the teenager but Trump is super-confident and capable of a good run. He made four centuries in his two qualifying matches last week and also recently won the qualifying event for the upcoming Wembley Masters.

Where will the first round upsets come? Neil Robertson, who won the last ranking title, the Bahrain Championship, may be vulnerable against a rejuvenated Michael Holt.

Barry Hawkins has already been in two quarter-finals this season and has the firepower to see off world no.14 Marco Fu. Nobody would normally expect 2005 world champion Shaun Murphy to lose to part time croupier Martin Gould but nobody thought he would lose to Adrian Gunnell at the Grand Prix or Mike Dunn in Bahrain. Gould may be worth a few quid against a player struggling badly for both form and confidence.

Betfair are offering odds on a 147 either being made or not. So far this season there have been three maximums - two in the Bahrain Championship and one in the Shanghai Masters. In 31 previous stagings of the UK Championship there have been seven 147s, although only three of these have been in the televised stage. The odds seem stacked against a max but with the quality of the field and so many frames to be played it may be worth punting on one at [2.2].

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