The Betfair Contrarian: Why Cambridge will win the 2010 Boat Race

Other / The Betfair Contrarian / 30 March 2010 / 1

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

The Contrarian is backing the light blues

"The huge difference in odds, with Oxford at [1.39] and Cambridge at [3.35], despite the Dark Blues boasting little obvious advantage, indicates that punters have been swayed by past results, and that Cambridge are great value."

There's nothing that the Contrarian is afraid of betting on, least of all toffs in rowing boats on the filthy old Thames. Oxford have won the Boat Race in four of the last five years, but with Cambridge carrying a bit more timber this year, the tables are ready to be turned. Here's why you should back the Light Blues at [3.35]...

History is on Cambridge's side

Not since their incredible streak of 16 wins in 17 years between 1976 and 1992 have Oxford managed to win the race three times in a row. Twice in recent years they've had an opportunity to complete a hat-trick of successive victories only to stuff it up in 2004 and 2007 and the regularity with which they have fallen just short means that it may now have created a mental block.

Only recent success has made Oxford favourites

Previews of this year's race acknowledge that this is one of the hardest to call in years. The Telegraph say that there is little to choose between them, The Guardian go with nothing to choose between well-matched Boat Race crews and claim that a mistake, a tactical blunder or the weather could decide the outcome. The Times feel that the form of both crews in recent fixtures against Molesey and Leander suggests that it could be close. Therefore, the huge difference in odds, with Oxford at [1.39] and Cambridge at [3.35], despite the Dark Blues boasting little obvious advantage, indicates that punters have been swayed by past results, and that Cambridge are great value.

Cambridge have the weight advantage...

In five of the last six years, the heavier crew has won the race, including each of the last three, so while the margin of half a kilo in Cambridge's favour may not be huge, it represents a welcome change, considering they have weighed in lighter in each of the last two years and been beaten, whereas the last time they packed more pounds, in 2007 - with the help of Thorsten Engelmann, the heaviest rower in the history of the race - they were victorious.

...and the more experienced crew

While Oxford have only retained one member of last year's winning crew, Cambridge have recalled three of their 2009 team Deaglan McEachern, Henry Pelly and bow Rob Weitemeyer - which not only means that their crew has greater experience of both the course and how to handle the pressure that the Boat Race brings, but also potentially a greater team spirit and work ethic because several of the crew's senior members have rowed together before.

Oxford's decade of dominance is over

A notable post-World War Two Boat Race pattern is that neither university dominates consecutive decades. Cambridge were stronger in the 50s, then there was nothing to choose between the teams in the 60s and 70s. It was Oxford's turn to take control in the 80s, winning nine of the 10 races, but they couldn't carry that form into the 90s, where seven of the 10 exchanges were won by Light Blues. Oxford were the outstanding performers of the 00s, with seven successes, but not since the 1850s and 1860s have they picked up the most wins for two straight decades. In addition, on two of the last three occasions that one team has outshone the other over the course of a decade, the less successful side has claimed the first triumph of the next 10 year span.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

Yank | 01 April 2010

One might point to the recent lineup changes as a sign of panic in the CUBC leadership. Surely these recent changes have had some sort of impact on the rhythm and boat feel.