Boxing Tips: Hittable Froch could be stung by Kessler comeback

Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 21 April 2010 / 1

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

One defeat does not make a bad boxer and Kessler - pictured here landing a blow on Gysmyr Perdomo - is a worthy favourite over Carl Froch

"Froch is increasingly becoming a Hatton-esque fighter who relies upon strength and determination to get the job done. Given his reach advantages, I can't remember the last time I saw Froch use the jab to set up his attacks. This is a fight that Kessler ought to be able to control, if he still has it in him."

Alex Steedman explains how Saturday's Super Six Series fight could unfold - with a tantalising array of finishes likely

On current form, regardless of all the other issues at hand, you'd have to say that the betting for this fight ([1.76] Kessler, [2.44] Froch) is wide of the mark. Two years ago I would have hoovered up every price from [1.5] to [1.7] about Kessler beating Froch but despite home advantage, he comes into this with a dark cloud hanging over him and perhaps dark thoughts clouding his mind.

In terms of technique and natural ability, I think Mikkell Kessler is a superior boxer to Carl Froch. He's not fleet-footed flashy but sound at judging distance (important with Froch who often stretches and leans) and the Dane has an excellent jab as well as a pretty thunderous right hand. Froch is still far too hittable for an elite fighter, so If Kessler connects like Jermain Taylor did when putting the Englishman on his backside for the first time ever, it could be curtains for The Cobra.

But the punting question remains, is Kessler as good as he once was? The Kessler who was almost dismantled by Andre Ward in November ought to be beatable but he went into that fight having fought only twice in two years because of promotional issues and Froch is no speedster like Ward. Remember the Kessler who troubled Joe Calzaghe for five rounds until Joe backed off and boxed his way to victory. That guy wins this easily but is that dude still around?

Certainly Froch is bursting with confidence following a world title win and two defences in a year-and-a-half. As good as that form looks with both Jean Pascal and Andre Dirrell going on to win titles themselves, the truth is that Froch would have lost to Taylor and could've dropped the decision to Dirrell. He's increasingly becoming a Hatton-esque fighter who relies upon strength and determination to get the job done. Given his reach advantages, I can't remember the last time I saw Froch use the jab to set up his attacks. This is a fight that Kessler ought to be able to control, if he still has it in him.

Interestingly, Froch is shorter at [3.5] to win by stoppage than he is (at [5.1]) to do it on points, so you could say that he might have to knock Kessler out to win away from home. And the Super Six system of 2 pts for a win and 3 pts for a KO certainly comes into it though I think most fighters look to win first and take their KO opportunities if they arise.

I'm sure Froch will have it in his mind to press Kessler, to ask questions of him if he can, so there will be desire and positive action from the Nottingham fighter in that regard. But it's worth noting that two of Froch's three World title fights have gone the distance and the third was only seconds away.

Still, I can envisage Froch landing one or two of those meaty, arcing uppercuts he throws and like the Haye fight, this has the possibility to be explosive at any time, so don't be put off punting a smaller stake stoppage in any round if you fancy it.

Personally, I think Kessler will be less gung ho of the pair, at least initially. But I do think he will find Froch easy to hit at times, so there will be opportunities. There's not a great deal to choose between the Kessler prices of [3.75] KO/TKO/DQ and [2.92] Decision/Tech Dec, and I prefer the latter. Certainly Kessler needs confidence and he needs it quickly, so expect him to establish a rhythm with the jab from the outset. He knows how tough, durable and wilful Froch can be, so don't expect risk taking through the first half of the fight, but if he has any of the Calzaghe effort left in him, this could be straightforward.

This is a fight that will divide opinion and because of the betting, may well have something for everyone. Form followers will be all over the odds-against Froch, boxing purists won't see Kessler beaten and, judging by recent magazine polls, those in the trade are divided on both counts. My take is that Froch will lose as soon as he meets a decent, technical boxer who can match him for grit. Mikkel Kessler was more than that fighter a few years back; if he still is then he wins.

Verdict : Kessler by decision/tech dec/dq - 2PTS (0-10) @ [3.5]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

Not A Dane | 24 April 2010

I think people have underestimated Kessler's confidence and home ring advantage.

If Froch gets careless he loses by TKO. If he tries to box with Kessler he loses on points.

Kessler's combination of strength, speed & technical ability will the cobras mongoose tonight.