Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 29 March 2010 / 1

Alex Steedman has rifled through the odds ahead of David Haye's first WBA heavyweight defence. Read his betting thoughts here

David Haye has proved himself Mr Excitement since he turned professional and he's developed a reputation as the KO King of Boxing. But on just his third outing as a Heavyweight, can Haye stop a man who has been halted just once in a 54 fight career?

Let us say that Haye has genuine punching power, that he has a cavalier spirit in the ring and that his measured points win over Nikolay Valuev in winning the WBA title last November, went against his very fighting instinct. So there are informed grounds for thinking that the south Londoner will be looking to unleash the Hayemakers when he steps into the ring against John Ruiz at the MEN this weekend.

I have to say, as much as I think Haye will probably win by KO/TKO/DQ, the price of [1.6] is pretty short. It is worth remembering he was [2.5] and bigger to register a similar win over Jean Marc Mormeck three years ago when he was challenging for the Cruiserweight title away from home. That was a fair price given there were serious doubts about Haye's stamina at the time and he'd only gone the distance once in what was a glorified schooling session. Still, would you want to be a layer at [1.8] or [2.0]?

Ruiz hasn't been stopped since he was thumped by David Tua back in 1996, that's nearly three weeks and 14 years to the day. He was a very different cat back then too; lanky, thin, chin up and back, not very street wise. The 2010 version is much thicker in the body all round and although he's chastised for it among the boxing fraternity, he knows his way around the ring. Good enough to beat the likes of Galota, McCline and Rahman but not smart enough to contain either James Toney or Roy Jones Jr. Still, he went 12 rounds with both the latter named.

Both his record and his style hint that Ruiz ought to be able to take Haye some rounds. The [3.1] about a points win for the Englishman certainly has some appeal, at the prices, but I just have that nagging feeling that this fight is set up for Haye to look spectacular. And with Haye, just about anything can happen, though I do think both he and trainer Adam Booth are a little easier to read than they were a few years back.

The team were surgically brilliant in Paris against Mormeck and Haye proved that he can box to a plan when he beat Valuev. I don't envisage a rapid start like Haye produced against Maccarinelli in that domestic blockbuster of 2008, so a round 1-3 KO doesn't appeal but things ought to be heating up by half way. The Total Rounds market is delicately poised at the 9th round which I think is really naughty. I have in my mind that if Haye does the business inside the distance, it will be between the 7th and the 10th, so that market is too tight too call.

Ruiz won't outbox Haye, so he really should come forward. The question is then one of how Haye reacts. The ballsy Haye play would be too back Ruiz up on the end of the jab and take away his only chance but that would mean putting a lot into the fight early and, significantly, running the risk of blowing the bazookas prematurely. I think the smart tactic - the one they will employ - is for Haye to let Ruiz come to him, maybe even get comfortable up close, but to pick him off on the way in and to create space and angles, like he did against Valuev only throwing more punches.

The jury is till out on whether Haye really is a thunderous puncher at this weight and level but I can see him producing controlled aggression and that should be enough to have an effect just beyond half way. The referee may well play a part and several knockdowns could be involved as Haye gets the job done just inside the distance. Given the record of Ruiz as well as the apparent apathy of No 1 Heavyweight Vladimir Klitschko, that would be some statement for Haye to make.

Recommended Bet: Haye KO, Groups 7-9, 1PT (STAKE 0-10)

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1. francisco Ruiz | 03 April 2010

   Thanks Alex........Well done

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