Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 08 March 2010 /

Pacquiao is a heavy odds-on shot to beat Clottey but even that [1.2] quote could represent value, says Alex Steedman. Nevertheless, there are bigger priced bets out there and our man points you in the direction of one

Sometimes short prices and indeed odds-on shots can be value bets. Denman was a terrific take to beat three rivals at [1.31] in the 2008 Aon chase at Newbury (between winning the Hennessy and the Gold Cup) while still one of my favourite wagers was backing Mikkel Kessler at a similar price to beat Marcus Beyer in 2006. Rarely has watching less than ten minutes of sport been so pleasurable and rewarding.

So it is that Manny Pacquiao is still attractively priced at his recently reduced mark of [1.2] to beat Joshua Clottey this weekend. Whoever mugged one layer of £15.5 at [1.4] ought to be reported for stealing, just a shame there weren't a couple of zeros on the end of that stake. It's not often I go into a world title fight thinking that one fighter has absolutely no chance, regardless of the markets but I do here. Clottey is, in punting parlance, an absolute million.

Despite advantages in both height and reach, it is difficult to envisage a scenario whereby the Ghanaian can bring those to bear. He's certainly not quick enough to put the heat on Pacquiao and the brutal truth is, simply not good enough either. He blatantly blew the chance to scalp Miguel Cotto last summer when the Puerto Rican was horribly cut and unsure of himself and although hand damage has been cited, it looked a similar story against Antonio Margarito previously. Playing the hard man against the eccentric Zab Judah and out-muscling long time lightweight Diego Corrales is no preparation for Manny Pacquiao, no matter how fired up Clottey is at this unexpected opportunity.

And it's not even as though Clottey has the decider in either glove. He's gone the distance in eight out of his last 10 fights and although Corrales was so tough that he visited the canvas twice in defeat, he was outweighed and undersized by nearly three divisions. As dream fights go; Pacquaio v Corrales would have been spectacular but, I suspect, very short. Pacquiao has only lost once in 27 fights trailing back to 1999 and not at all in the last five years. He ain't losing here.

So Clottey is not fast enough, doesn't pack the punch and basically isn't good enough. What price do you want Pacquiao? But the truth is, backing odds-on isn't for everyone and how he gets the win is of more punting interest.

I came into this thinking that a Pacquaio decision win was very much on the cards and I still see that as the likely outcome but with the pattern of this fight probably assured, there is the feint whiff of another Pac Man stoppage. Clottey fights one way - coming forward behind the high-gloves-tickling-his-ears guard and letting punches go in a measured fashion when in range. The problem with that tactic is that Pacquaio will rarely be in range with a side step here and a balance breaking punch there. Pac man will be landing punches when he wants to, probably in ones and twos rather than bunches but it's difficult to know at what point the likely body assault will take its toll, if at all.

Clottey has never been stopped and rarely put on the deck. He can be out-boxed - Cotto had him down from a well timed jab in the first round - so Pacquiao will have to spy the gaps when that guard comes down. He may even play counter-puncher which increases the likelihood of a distance fight which is trading odds against at [2.24] compared to the shorter [1.57] that Pac Man earns that early shower. If there is to be a stoppage, I can imagine a body-sapped finish towards the end or a pressure forced intervention from the referee through rounds 9-11 which can be backed at [17.0], [19.0] and [23.0] respectively.

My feeling is though that Clottey won't be easy to easy to shift despite the fact he will be hit regularly. Pacquiao to win on points looks the call but then the way he's been entertaining us through the past 18 months, another Pac Man spectacular wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Verdict: Pacquaio Win @ [1.2]
Method of victory: Points @ [3.15]

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