Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 19 April 2010 / 1

They say the Dane is on the wane but he still goes into Saturday's bout as favourite. So is that justified? Alex Steedman has the betting.betfair view

I've been thinking about Froch V Kessler since the Super Six Series was announced; more to the point, I've been dreaming about this bet for nearly three years. They say that good things come to those who wait but now it's here, I'm not so sure.

In early November of 2007, Carl Froch was celebrating the third and final defence of his British Super middleweight title with a dominant performance against the waning Robin Reid. It afforded the expressive Nottingham man another opportunity to bait Joe Calzaghe who the previous week had outpointed a certain Mikkel Kessler in a tense, well-balanced fight before 50,000 in Cardiff. As was so often the case in those days, Froch taunted Calzaghe for a scrap but much of the talk afterwards was about the possibility of a match up with Kessler. If that fight had taken place in any of the intervening years, I would have made the Dane an absolute lock but events of the past six months mean the same prediction cannot be made with such confidence, if indeed any.

Kessler was so comprehensively out-done by American Andre Ward in November that it was as much a shock to him as it was to the boxing world. So much so that the Viking Warrior has parted company with long time trainer, mentor and friend Ricard Olsen with Jimmy Montoya, who had assisted Olsen occasionally before, charged with bringing a fresh tactical approach to the table. A laudable attitude or is he clutching at straws, only Saturday will reveal if Mikkel Kessler still has the business inside of him.

While the man from Copenhagen spent November nursing his badly scarred face and deeply bruised ego, Carl Froch was a month into winding down having notched up two Super Six points courtesy of an unconvincing win over Andre Dirrell. In fairness to Froch, he at least tried to make it a fight but was repeatedly thwarted by the American's refusal to engage.

Dirrell frustrated Froch and probably landed the better shots but his back-pedalling negativity cost him the fight and deservedly so. Had he stood his ground only a fraction of the time he did so impressively against Arthur Abraham recently, he would have beaten Froch. As it was, the only time the Englishman sweated all night was over the ultimate split decision.

But that win, against a real speedster, looks pretty red hot form since Dirrell ended the unbeaten run of Arthur Abraham. Regardless of what you think of Dirrell's reaction to the Abraham illegal blow and subsequent disqualification, the fact is Dirrell was brilliant for most of the fight and was well on the way to winning it easily. So credit Froch for beating Dirrell but consider that it was a fight he perhaps ought to have lost. Problem is, The Cobra has yet to taste defeat and he's developed a very taking habit for winning, however it comes.

Three world title wins in just over a year, Froch is on an impressive streak. He emerged from a give and take humdinger against Jean Pascal in late 2008 to win the vacant WBC title; he defended it by getting off the canvas for the first time and coming from behind with a last gasp stoppage against Jermain Taylor and defended it again against the elusive Dirrell. He's a proper hard man is Froch, it's almost impossible to believe that this swaggering blabbermouth supposedly used to suffer from a crisis in confidence. He's not short of that good stuff now whereas Kessler is grasping for it while rebuilding himself.

There is the possibility that Father Time is calling Kessler's name. It happens. But I'd be surprised if that's it and so suddenly. Two fights in two years (because of promotional wrangling) building up to the Ward defeat certainly didn't help and time may yet prove that Ward is special. If nothing else he's a very good and extremely fast fighter, who maybe would have given Kessler problems anyway but perhaps also caught him on a bad night. If any of that is true, I think the best Mikkel Kessler is too good for an in form Carl Froch. A few years ago I would have had the lot on, now I can only hope that what I believed then still has basis now and only Mikkel Kessler really knows the answer to that and only on Saturday night will we know the truth.

Verdict: Mikkel Kesssler to win

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1. vishaal prasad | 23 April 2010

   haha ok so you bet kessler and ill bet froch and well see who comes out on top hahaha

   kessler was a mistake for this tourny

   after calzage everyone knows just pressure kessler and he has no answer

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