Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 29 May 2011 / 1

Carl Froch is an understandable favourite against battle-hardened Jamaican Glen Johnson but don't expect an easy win so beat accordingly, says Alex Steadman.

As fighters and men, Carl Froch and Glen Johnson are cut from a very similar cloth. Fearless in the face of a challenge and underappreciated by the mainstream media, they are boxers scrapping for more than just the W. But all of that could be about to change for the victor this weekend.

Incentive has never been much of an issue for Froch or Johnson but with a place in the Super Six final up for grabs, there is an element of the 'winner takes all' here and Froch is a worthy favourite ([1.27]). 'The Cobra's' run of five blockbusters back-to-back is the stuff of legend. In 2008 Froch won the WBC Super Middleweight Title in a barnstormer against subsequent world champion Jean Pascal and followed that with a dramatic late stoppage of Jermain Taylor (who once beat miracle man Bernard Hopkins twice). Froch then overcame the greasy fast and talented Andre Dirrell and though he lost a disputed squeaker away to the excellent Mikkel Kessler, the Nottingham man put that right when winning 'his' title back in a virtuoso show against Arthur Abraham last time. Even likely final opponent Andre Ward didn't look that good in beating Abraham.

In that astonishing sequence of matches, Froch has shown heart and class; he's proved he can box with extreme skill or bang heads with the best and come out on top any which way. It might be that a combination of both will be required against the travelling hard man who is Glen Johnson. The Jamaican is not known as the 'road warrior' for fun, carving a reputation as a tough guy who will fight anyone, anywhere, anytime. He's beaten Roy Jones as well as Antonio Tarver and has tested the new young guns in the Light Heavyweight division, guys like Chad Dawson and Tavoris Cloud. Johnson is no easy night.

In one word, Johnson ([5.1]) represents 'pressure' and he applies plenty of it in an all-out assault over 12 rounds, at a pace which defies his 42 years. He tends to wear down opponents rather than smash them ([11.5] KO) though he has come down from Light-Heavyweight for this opportunity and stopped the much younger Allan Green last time. I think that Green has essentially been found out at top level, so perspective is needed there. Froch has already publically stated his respect for Johnson, so don't expect the Englishman to go bombing away for the knockout ([1.71]). He is the better boxer, the younger man and he brings more variety to the table so in a sense, the fight is his to win or lose. I expect it will be the former.

Froch showed in both the Pascal and Kessler fights that he can operate at an intense level so the heat Johnson is likely to bring won't necessarily be a surprise. In fact, going in against a 'come forward' fighter might work in his favour, tactically. Although he appears laconic, Froch is quicker than he looks and smarter too; those qualities were evident in the Dirrell and Abraham performances. Froch will probably lose when he comes up against a smart, fast boxer but Johnson is no slickster. Johnson has a chance if Froch fights lazily or completely gung ho and both seem unlikely, given his current well being and maturity.

There is the possibility that Froch will find hitting the older, slower Johnson simply too easy and too much fun and you fear one day soon Father Time is going to call out Johnson's name but the truth is the Jamaican hasn't been seriously troubled since he was TKO'd late on by modern legend Bernard Hopkins back in 1997. That was his first World Title fight as a relatively green young pro but he's never been stopped since and some bigger guys than Froch have tried. I wouldn't be surprised if Froch has chances for the KO/TKO/DQ (4.5), particularly late on but I think it less likely than going to points.
This fight has every appeal as a long distance scrap and the prospect of Froch winning on points is for me, one of the most tantalising boxing bets of the year so far. Regulars will know that 5 point plus selections are rare but this is definitely one. In truth there isn't significant mileage in that market, the price is absolutely right, but then so is the likely outcome.

Having recently signed a contract with Matchroom Sport alongside young buck Eddie Hearn, Froch believes he has the muscle to finish his career in style. Already there is talk of starry match ups with Hopkins, Bute and maybe even Groves and DeGale. So typical of Froch that he wants to test himself against the very best and though Johnson isn't quite that, he will force Froch to deliver another top class performance.

STEEDO'S SELECTION FROCH BY DEC/TD 8PTS WIN X 1.71 (0-10 SCALE)

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1. Anonymous | 04 June 2011

   First class analysis-I've had the lot on Froch on points on your say so.

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