Boxing Betting: Big mouth Bellew to wilt under Welsh pressure

Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 10 October 2011 / 1

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Avoid a tear-up and Cleverly can get the job done with minimal trouble

"In terms of ability, experience and timing, I would normally consider this an absolute lock-down for Cleverly. But there is one fundamental reason why Bellew ([6.2] KO/TKO/DQ) has a chance here and that is Cleverly loves a scrap."

Tony Bellew talks a big game but will struggle to back it up with his fists against the 'pressure cooker hitter' Nathan Cleverly on the debut night of free-to-air satellite channel Box Nation (456 on your Sky box)

Thud and Blunder will get you so far in this life, as many flourishing teenagers will testify, but only so far and in the boxing ring the truth will always, eventually, out. Tony Bellew faces that moment of truth when he squares off against Nathan Cleverly this weekend.

If talking was competition, Bellew ([5.0] to win on Saturday night) would already be double-world champion, but the truth is he's only just taken the boxing 'L' plates off.

A three-time ABA title winner as an amateur, Bellew is unbeaten in 16 pro fights and looked potentially smart early in his career with a blaze of stoppage wins. The victories have continued but they have been hard earned more recently and with authentic doubts about where exactly Bellew is heading: He'll say the stars, the form book says the canvass.

The alarm bells started ringing through Bellew's decision win over admittedly awkward Bob Ajisafe last year when he struggled to find alternative ways to get the job done. Embarrassed to hit the deck in the fourth then, Bellew was on his backside twice more in a seesaw stoppage win over muscular Ovill McKenzie next.

In a largely boring return decision over the same man in July, Bellew proved he could box to orders and with discipline but it was uninspiring stuff. Let's be frank, it was four million miles away from what will be required to dethrone Cleverly ([1.25]) and if those fighters got to Bellew, you just know 'Clev' can.

The Welshman has moved quickly and impressively from British, Commonwealth and European level to his current position as WBO light heavyweight champion.

Unbeaten in 22, Cleverly is one of Britain's emerging stars. Fit, tough and skilful, Cleverly ([2.04] to win by KO/TKO/DQ) seems to be developing power as he has goes with eight stoppages in his last nine fights since beating Tony Oakey three years ago. That is noteworthy given the rise in class, though 'Clev' is not a one punch thriller, rather a pressure cooker hitter.

The Cardiff Graduate went the distance in 10 of his first 13 pro fights and it took him five rounds of free scoring right hands to get rid of Antonio Brancalion last year, a man Juergen Braehmer stopped in one. But levels are levels and right now Cleverly looks on a different plane to Bellew.

In terms of ability, experience and timing, I would normally consider this an absolute lock-down for Cleverly. But there is one fundamental reason why Bellew ([6.2] KO/TKO/DQ) has a chance here and that is Cleverly loves a scrap. The Welshman puts himself at risk and takes punches unnecessarily because he loves the macho thrill of the fight. That is terrific for the fans but worrying if you've plunged at odds-on. In fairness to Cleverly, he has proved himself solid in the chin department but he wouldn't want to take too many risks against a big puncher and probably soon-to-be cruiserweight like Bellew.

The first round or so will be instructive if you are punting in-play because there have been heated exchanges, largely inspired by Bellew, in the build up. There is a real edge to this one but I've been impressed by how relaxed Cleverly has been in the face of needling provocation. I think the Welshman knows he's far too good for Bellew and his performance will be one which reflects that.

I'm expecting measure and composure from Cleverly but with all his usual zest and bite. If that is the case then he can dominate from the start and wear down Bellew from halfway. Sometimes in life the lessons can be hard, inside the boxing ring they are harder still.

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(1)

Paul | 11 October 2011

Alex

An excellent piece and your analysis is spot on! Team Cleverly know they are going to win...

Paul