Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 31 October 2011 /

The challenger brings a wealth of heart and passion into his bout with George Groves but the champion is an astute operator who is likely to prevail, says Alex Steedman.

Do you remember the story about a magic pancake that leapt out of the pan, through the door, down the path and out of the village? The Pancake chased freedom until reaching a river blocking its path. There sat a cunning fox that persuaded the pancake to leap on its snout to be transported to the other side. He ate it. Paul Smith is the expectant fox this weekend with a beady eye on champion George Groves.

Having briefly escaped the frying pan of a sizzling domestic rivalry with James DeGale courtesy of a close and disputed majority decision for the British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight titles, Groves [1.18] is straight back in another meaningful scrap. The truth is, if Groves is destined for world level, he needs to win fights like this but his price is not necessarily reflective of the closeness of this match. Unbeaten in 13 fights, Groves certainly has the stuff of a champion, having staved off potential career derailment against two week substitute Kenny Anderson last year before his crowning moment against DeGale. The Hammersmith man has shown skills and steel in equal measure while his fight plan focus against DeGale was frightening.

Scouser Smith [5.5] presents a different challenge for Groves and is a man convinced he will prevail. Smith has only lost twice in a 33 fight career that hasn't quite hit the heights promised. It is probably fair to say that, although losing heavily, he was a little unlucky that the ref stopped him against DeGale last December just as he was when ejected from season three of the American Contender series once upon a time. But 'Smigga' knows a win here would put him right back on track. It is a winnable fight too.

The British title was Smith's property. He won and defended the belt in two bloody, local derbies against Tony Quigley and Tony Dobson. Both contests proved Smith's heart for the battle as well as his winning mentality. It may be that DeGale's style was always wrong for him and that the more orthodox Groves is tailored to Smith's needs. That may be so. Smith is tough, rounded and has looked sharp in rapidly dispatching two outclassed opponents recently. The challenger will bring heat, desire and pressure to the fight but is Smith classy enough to prevail?

Certainly Groves doesn't bring DeGale's speed to the table, so Smith may feel more comfortable in the ring but the 'Saint' has variety in his locker and discipline to implement the plan. I can see him finding ways to nullify Smith's fury and scoring when he can. Let's hope that Groves is a little busier and proactive than he was in that tense DeGale fight and he can emerge from a close scrap with a decision win. The pancake will leap back into the frying pan and we can talk about the DeGale rematch again.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Groves to win by DEC/TD @ [2.5] (0-10pts scale)

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