Women's Draw / Gary Boswell / 21 June 2009 / Leave a comment

"You can't win Wimbledon in the first week but you can certainly lose it" is one of the tournament's cliches. Here are a few odds-on shots that may not even make it to round two, says Gary Boswell.

No.1 Marta Domachowska to beat Anabel Medina Garrigues at [4.0] or better

20th seed Anabel Medina Garrigues has been playing well but is very much a clay court specialist sure to be vulnerable on grass. She is also a very short price against her 112-ranked Polish opponent who has beaten her both times in their recent encounters - one of those on the Ordina grass in 2006. It was a straight sets win and reversed the score of the Strasbourg final played between the two the year before on clay, which Medina Garrigues won convincingly. Wimbledon would strike me very much as Domachowska's arena and I smell a possible upset here.

No.2 Elena Baltacha to beat Alona Bondarenko at [3.5] or better

Patriotism as Ukranian émigré Elena Baltacha takes on her old compatriot and 32 ranked Bondarenko sister and can be given a bit of a chance, despite her own 105 world ranking. The basis for this is a 1-1 head to head score, with Baltacha's win coming on grass in Birmingham 2005. A tight first set was succeeded by a runaway 6-1 for the Brit second set and she showed her ability to frighten class players on grass as well as her her tendency to save her best form for games in Britain. I'd be hopeful of a bold show from the Brit (maybe to be hedged in-running) and certainly consider the double specialist Ukranian a poor bet at her price of [1.44].

No.3 Selsi Karatantcheva to beat Alisa Leybanov at [3.0] or better

This is a left field selection as there won't be many people who have heard of the 151 ranked player from Kazakhstan, including me! Kleybanova is also one of the rising stars and enters as a Wimbledon seed for the first time at number 27. She has a very hard hitting style that is well suited to the grass but her movement is suspect and reading up the head to head between these two, I note that Karatantcheva won their only competitive match four years ago in Moscow when they were both 15 year olds by exploiting her opponent's poor movement.

It took a set to work out the winning way as Kleybanova won that 6-1 but then succumbed 6-1 6-3 in the next two as she was pulled all over the court. Interesting, and there will be a definite sense of prior knowledge attached to this match that will be a worry to the young seed and perhaps allow the underdog to play once more an unrestrained game.

No.4 Stephanie Foretz to beat Gisela Dulko at [3.8] or better

28 year old French minor star Stephanie Foretz is currently ranked 119 and will have a lot on her plate to overcome the 37 ranked Argentinian but there is a game on grass six years ago that Foretz won in Birmingham that suggests she is very much suited to the surface and might fancy her chances of a repeat win. Dulko has won both encounters since but neither of those on grass - she clearly prefers the slower surfaces. Foretz might play a bit quick for her again here and is worthy of a punt I reckon.

No.5 Pauline Parmentier to beat Akgul Amanmuradova at [2.06] or better

This is the worst priced of my outsider bets but might be the one I fancy most as I can see no reason for Amanmuradova to be priced up as favourite against an opponent she has lost four sets to love against in the past. Parmentier won one of those two games on grass at Wimbledon 2008 and clearly appreciates the surface. Her current world ranking of 79 (as opposed to Amanmuradova's 131) would also suggest that the oddsmakers have got this one wrong. The Uzbekistani was being touted as one of the good new young things this time last year but has had a poor twelve months and dropped significantly down the rankings. She could make it a tight one if turning up with her A game but I'm very much in the French girl's court with her superior head to head record and grass court preference giving her a big psychological edge.

Other factors to note from study of the draw are that defending champion Venus Williams has been given a relatively soft passage to the semi-finals in the second quarter whilst sister Serena must compete in the much trickier fourth quarter where several potential traps lie in the shape of Viktoria Azarenka, Sorana Cirstea, Maria Sharapova, Jie Zheng, Laura Robson, sensational Ordina retaining champion Tamarine Tanasugarn and a possible third round encounter against Birmingham winner Magdelena Rybarikova or young Russian sensation Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Still reckon Serena should be favourite in the outrights over her five time champion sister?

Will we see many first round upsets in the 2010 Wimbledon championship?