Wimbledon Betting / Sean Calvert / 02 July 2011 /

Novak Djokovic was the man our in-form tipster Sean Calvert picked pre-tournament and nothing he's seen from the two finalists so far are making him think now is the time to jump ship and side with Rafael Nadal.

We've reached the final day of Wimbledon 2011 and it's time for the men's singles final between the top two ranked players in the world.

It's been a very profitable tournament for followers of this column and if Novak Djokovic can win the title it will make it even better, as I advised backing the Serb outright at [5.1] in my event preview.

Rafa Nadal is favourite for Sunday's clash at around [1.68] based on recent Wimbledon results, but I won't be deserting Djokovic. Merely laying a bit off to ensure a profit on my outright wager.

For those not already involved in the outright market, I still think the value lies with Djokovic, as he has beaten Nadal in seven of their last nine meetings and the fact that this is on grass shouldn't make that much difference.

Not many thought that Nole could beat Rafa on clay, but not only did he do it, he did it in style by defeating the Spaniard in straight sets in Rome and Madrid. So having the same faith in Djokovic here could pay dividends.

In fact, the last time that Rafa beat Nole was in 'Contact Lens Gate' at the O2 Arena in London last winter when Djokovic had severe issues with his eyes. All in all, [1.68] on Nadal looks a little short.

Nadal showed some of his best form against Andy Murray on Friday, but you have to say that Murray's brain went west after he missed a sitter when in control of the match. Rafa won't enjoy that kind of benevolence from Novak.

The Serb's movement has been excellent on the green stuff this fortnight and he has gone a long way to silencing those who considered him incapable of playing on it.

After a shaky start in his semi final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Djokovic showed something like his best form and broke Tsonga's heart with his service return. He also exposed the Frenchman's inconsistent backhand, forcing Tsonga into too many low percentage swipes.

Djokovic clearly has the advantage over Nadal in their recent series and with the boost of being the new world number one behind him, he has the tools to take Rafa apart again.

The concerns are nerves in his first Wimbledon final and Rafa's amazing SW19 record, but if you could pick any player to take out Nadal, you would pick Nole. And at [2.44] it's certainly worth a bet that he can continue his recent dominance.

Plenty of recent champions have won the title in their first appearance in the final, including Roger Federer, Lleyton Hewitt, Pete Sampras, and Andre Agassi, so why not another?

Recommended bet:

Back Djokovic to beat Nadal at [2.44]

If you want to take Sean's advice and back Novak Djokovic to beat Rafa Nadal then you're better off doing it on Betfair. A £10 bet on Djokovic would make you a profit of £14.40 on Betfair, as opposed to £13.00 with William Hill and £13.70 on Bet365. See how Betfair's odds compare with those of other bookmakers by visiting Betchecker.

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