Wimbledon Ladies Final Betting: She's on another planet

Wimbledon Betting / Gary Boswell / 03 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Boz previews tomorrow's Ladies' Singles sisters final and comes down firmly in favour of Venus...

You don't really need to be a newspaper headline writer to come up with the observation that when Venus Williams walks into Wimbledon, it's like she's on another planet. Gone is the slipsliding gangler of Roland Garros, vamoosed the misfiring mediocrity of recent Flushing Meadows and no sign whatsoever of the lacksadaisical half-heartedness of Melbourne.

At Wimbledon, she is a woman possessed and as damn near unbeatable as it's possible to get in sport.

Except of course that she has been beaten twice in the final. During those halcyon Serena years of 2002 and 2003. Do you see us going back to those days tomorrow after the way she humiliated the current world number one in the semi-final? Is Serena anywhere near as good as she was in those days? My eyes tell me not and I think she was reasonably lucky to get through her semi-final. More a case of Elena Dementieva's anxiety (or her mother's?) getting to her again and a Hawkeye that seemed hell bent on punishing the Russian at every opportunity.

Don't get me wrong, I actually think Serena is on top of her game at the moment. She did look fit and fast and her hands were as silky as ever. For me though, Dementieva was the better tennis player and played an excellent game but just lost out in that mental department that is such a forte of both Williams' sisters. Whatever they lack in athletic grace, they sure as hell make up for in competitive spirit.

That is why they face each other in a remarkable 10th WTA Ladies single final and the eighth in a Grand Slam. A record we are simply never going to see the likes of again.

Before the competition began, I questioned the market makers and why they had Serena as [3.85] favourite and Venus as a secondary [5.4] when all the recent grass court form pointed to Venus. She has five titles to her name and is rightfully considered 'The Queen of SW19'. She has demonstrated that in a flawless campaign so far and I'm glad to see the market has now acknowledged it and posted her a clear [1.72] favourite for tomorrow's match.

Serena is [2.36]. To my mind, that's still a little long on Venus who had the next best thing to a walkover in her semi-final (and her last 16 match) whilst little sister was pushed to her physical limits by Dementieva. Venus is going to come out fresh and with all the current form pointing to her, she looks a good bet to me if you are not already on.

The set betting is also of interest. Venus to win 2-0 is [2.9] and 2-1 is as long as [4.1] and you could couple those with the chance of doing better than backing the mere single. The mega cautious might also bung in Serena 2-1 at [4.9] in case it is a close affair or in case the sisters decide on one of those uncompetitive affairs that dogged their early years.

I've seen no evidence of that in recent matches though. The sisters seem these days to genuinely enjoy playing each other (aswell as with each other in the doubles) and if Richard does his usual thing and goes home before the match, I expect it to be played out in the correct manner with Venus once again proving that these days, she is absolutely imperious on grass.

Could she do what she did to the world number one and beat her sister 6-0? You can get [65.0] for her to do that first set with Betfair and [12.0] that either sister does it in any set. Long odds because it is a longshot but not totally unthinkable given that injury or fatigue might also play a part - especially in Serena's case.

One bet I don't fancy is the tiebreak. You can get [2.36] that there is a tiebreak and [1.7] that there isn't. That might look like a generous price for what should be a tight contest between women who have a 10-10 overall head to head and a 2-2 on grass.
Take out 2002 and 2003 though because in those days it was Serena who was unplayable.

These days it's Venus for me as she proved in the final last year. I expect her to gain another comfortable win to confirm her as the mistress of the planet that is SW19!