Wimbledon Betting / Sean Calvert / 30 June 2011 /

Andy Murray will have the hopes of a nation pinned on during Friday afternoon but a fit-again Rafael Nadal should have too much in his locker, not least the self-belief of taking the Scot apart at SW19 before.

Those with tickets for Friday at the All England Club won't be seeing Roger Federer, but they will be witnessing two potentially classic Wimbledon Men's semi finals.

Both Andy Murray v Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have the look of tight matches about them and most British eyes will be on Murray as he attempts to reach his first final at SW19.

Unfortunately for the Scot, he has the formidable presence of the world number one standing in his way and he's yet to take a set from the Spaniard on grass.

They've met twice at Wimbledon and Nadal has been a comfortable victor on both occasions, but Murray should run Rafa closer this time.

Murray hasn't given the UK tennis-watching public their usual nail-biting moments this year, so he should be fresher mentally and of course he's a bit more experienced at this stage of Slams now.

Who knows what sort of shape Rafa's troublesome ankle is in, but let's assume he's OK, as he showed no signs of injury against Mardy Fish.

If both players are fit - and Murray showed us his usual grimacing against Feliciano Lopez - this could turn into a classic match, but the worry for Andy's fans has to be that he hasn't met anyone in the top-20 in the world yet and that second serve is still looking suspect.

Rafa had to battle against Juan Martin Del Potro and he should be tested again on Friday, but the Spaniard has won 19 matches in a row on the Wimbledon lawns and while I expect Muzza to possibly make this a great spectacle, Nadal should come through - possibly in four sets at [3.85].

The best bet though is for this one to last more than 40.5 games at
around [1.88].

The last time this pair met on a fast surface it was very close with a final set breaker deciding the winner and it's not out of the question that Murray could win it, but the head says that Rafa will find a way to win eventually.

As far as the other semi is concerned, it's all about how Jo-Wilfried Tsonga plays and I can't see him playing as well as he did against Federer again.

But Nole has struggled against Tsonga before and the Frenchman holds a 5-2 head-to-head advantage over the Serbian - their last meeting being a five set encounter at the Australian Open in 2010 that Tsonga won.

They've never met on grass before and you feel that Tsonga could take this one all the way again, but it depends on how long he can keep up the unplayable element of his game for.

Djokovic has raised his game when he's needed to this fortnight, but he hasn't really beaten much, so Tsonga could catch him cold and for my money an upset is more likely here than in the other semi.

I expect Djokovic to win, but I don't like the [1.53] currently on offer, so take a chance on 3-1 at around [3.9].

Recommended bets:

Back Over 40.5 games in Murray v Nadal at [1.87] or Back Nadal to win
3-1 at [3.85]

Back Djokovic to win 3-1 at [3.9]

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