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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Roger Federer won't win Wimbledon

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The Contrarian's case against the fading Wimbledon champion is so compelling that it might not qualify as contrary. Like Senor Nadal, he's getting too good.

Slams don't come easily for Roger Federer anymore. His armour of invincibility is losing its sheen and after a season where he has been picked off here and there, he is in grave danger of surrendering his pride and joy, Wimbledon. Rafael Nadal showed no mercy at Roland Garros and will twist the sword if Federer is equally spineless at the All England Club. Roger is the current favourite, [2.16] on Betfair, but Nadal [3.8] and Novak Djokovic [6.8] smell blood. Here's why:

It 's been a bad year for Federer. Roger hasn't won either of the first two Grand Slams this year, losing in straight sets to Djokovic in the Australian Open semi, then winning just four games in a straight sets defeat to Nadal in the final at Roland Garros. It's not just in the Grand Slams that the Fed Express has been derailed. Federer has won just two of the ten tournaments he has contested in 2008 and seems to be declining on a yearly basis, having won three this time last year, five at this point in 2006 and seven prior to Wimbledon in 2005.

He can't win six on the spin. No one has ever won six successive Wimbledon singles titles in the Grand Slam era (post 1968). Bjorn Borg won five consecutive titles between 1976 and 1980. For his fifth and last title, the natty looking Swede beat McEnroe in a five set thriller. The following year (1981), McEnroe defeated Borg to end his reign. Federer beat Nadal twelve months ago in a five set thriller to take his fifth (and last?) title.

Nadal is on fire. The Spaniard has won three straight tournaments coming into Wimbledon, and five of his last six. He won his first Hamburg Masters, defeating Djokovic and Federer en route, then his fourth successive French Open, without dropping a set during the tournament. Even more remarkable was his performance at Queens. With just three days between the French Open Final and his first game on grass, he made a spectacular transition, breaking Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick's eight-year stranglehold on the Artois Championship. And he didn't have it easy. He overcame Roddick and Djokovic in the semis and final.

Nadal's got the measure of Federer. His 6-3 6-1 6-0 victory over Federer at the French Open was the most one sided Grand Slam final since Jimmy Connors took four games off McEnroe at Wimbledon in 1984. It was his third straight victory over Federer and makes his overall record against the world number one 11-6.

And he's getting closer on grass. Federer's clay challenge is in decline but Nadal is getting closer to the Wimbledon champ on grass. In 2006 Nadal lost to Federer in four sets and in 2007 the Spaniard was edged out in five. The win at Queen's was Nadal's first tournament win on grass and he leads the ATP Race, so the Spaniard's confidence could not be higher. Some will say that Federer showed great courage to come back from the French Open drubbing to win at Halle but the quality of his opponents was not as high as those defeated by Nadal to win Queens.

Nadal won't lose a third successive final. Not since Fred Stolle in 1965 has any man suffered three consecutive final defeats. Nadal was runner-up in 2006 and 2007, and his route to this year's final is easier than Roger's.

Seeded two, Nadal avoids third seed Djokovic who would meet Federer in the final. Djokovic has already beaten the Wimbledon champ in straight sets in Australia. And Queen's last week marked his first appearance in a grass tournament final.

Even Andy Murray can beat Federer. Britain's only real hope at Wimbledon has recorded successive wins over Federer, including a victory at the Dubai Championships in March. That's embarrassing.

It's written in the stars. Astrologists have made a concerted effort to show why this year will see a new Wimbledon champion. If you're really interested follow the link: (http