US Open Betting / Jack Houghton / 11 September 2011 / 1

Most aces, set betting and tie breaks - there's plenty of value to be found in the side markets. Jack Houghton has rifled through the stats to bring you a few of the best wagers to be had from the Nadal v Djokovic showdown.

With Roger Federer providing more evidence of a career in decline, and Andy Murray highlighting the ever-widening gulf between his ability and likely grand slam success, we find ourselves with the same final line-up as at Wimbledon, but this time we know more.

Djokovic closed the small gap in their head-to-head record at SW19 that day, and in stunning fashion. A fourth-set blip aside, the Serb was dominant. That silenced the doubters (myself among them) who felt that Djokovic had struggled to put away weaker players to reach that final; and who felt that his four consecutive wins over Nadal prior to Wimbledon meant little - after all, every time the two had met in a grand slam, Nadal had outplayed Djokovic.

That hoodoo overcome, it's easy to build a strong case for Djokovic. He has notched up 12 match wins against Nadal, has beaten him every time they have met this year - including twice on clay - and, crucially in this final, Djokovic holds a nine-to-five advantage over Nadal on hard courts. And the Serb has only lost twice this year, with one of those defeats being a retirement due to injury. With all this in his favour, is it any wonder Djokovic is [1.66] to win the thing?

On balance, Djokovic certainly looks the most likely winner, but memories of Nadal's performance in the final here last year makes me reluctant to play at those odds, and the best value is likely to be found elsewhere.

Most Aces
Neither is renowned for a blistering first serve - they rarely go much above 125mph - so they don't tend to amass many aces. At these Championships, less than five per cent of Djokovic's points have come via aces, and for Nadal this drops to less than three per cent. Compare this to Federer and Murray (both around eight per cent), and it's clear that the top two in the world have to do things the hard way.

Head-to-head, the pair only averages a combined ace total of around seven a match. Djokovic has served more on 16 occasions (62 per cent), to Nadal's six (21 per cent), with four matches ending in a tie. All this tells you that Djokovic should be around the [1.60] mark to serve most aces. At the time of writing this market is fairly illiquid, but any price over [1.70] should be considered value.

Tie Break
Perhaps the lack of a big first serve explains why these two don't play many tie-breaks. In a total of 70 sets, they have only played six tie-breaks, or one every 11 or 12 sets played. Even assuming they play four or five sets in the final, that translates to odds of around [2.90] that we'll see a tie-break in Monday's final, and [1.52] that we won't. At around [2.50] then, "No" looks enormous value, and I'll be lumping on.

Set Betting
Despite how closely matched the two appear, they have not historically produced especially competitive matches. Of the 96 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've only used 70 of them, or 73 per cent. Applying this to the final, we might expect to see three or four sets, but, perhaps against expectations, are unlikely to see five. As I think Djokovic has the edge, I'll be backing him to win 3-0 ([4.80]) and 3-1 ([4.10]).

Recommendations
5pts BACK Djokovic to serve most aces at any price over [1.70].
8pts BACK No in Tie-Break Played market at [2.50].
2pts BACK Djokovic to win 3-0 at [4.80].
2pts BACK Djokovic to win 3-1 at [4.10].

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1. Anonymous | 12 September 2011

   Surely they have played SEVEN tiebreaks in head to heads...

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