The Betfair Contrarian: Why Roger Federer will not win the Australian Open

Australian Open Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 23 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

Seven reasons why Fed won't lift the trophy in January...

There's only one problem with invincibility - small minded people can't help but see it as a challenge. From the Daleks to Superman, invincibles have always had to put up with someone trying to find the chink in their armour so that they can say "Ha! Not so invincible now, are you!"

For Roger Federer, this sort of petty irritation has become a fact of life, although until recently he brushed off most engagements without fear of being exposed as human. In the first big event of 2008, however, January's Australian Open, The Contrarian believes the great Federer, who has won the event for the last two years, will not be needing an extra bag for the trophy. [You can lay Roger Federer to win the Australian Open on Betfair at [1.63].

1. Because no one has ever won it in three successive years before.
Eight players (Ken Rosewall, Guillermo Vilas, Johan Kriek, Mats Wilander, Stefan Edberg, Ivan Lendl, Jim Courier, and most lately Andre Agassi) have won two consecutive Australian Open titles but none has ever added a third.

2. All great players lose an Australian Open final
There are only five players in tennis history who have won more Grand Slam titles than Roger Federer. Three of them won the Australian Open (Pete Sampras, Roy Emerson and Rod Laver) and they all lost at least one Australian Open final as well. Federer is yet to lose an Australian Open final.

3. Federer is having a lousy year (by Roger Federer standards).
Federer has already lost nine games in 2007, the combined total of his losses for 2005 and 2006. His win rate for this season is currently 88.3% compared to a winning rate of 94.8% and 95.3% in the previous two years - the build up years before he went on to win the Australian Open the following January.

4. Federer is having a lousy year on hard courts (by Roger Federer standards).
Federer's record on hard courts this year has also been well below his form in his two previous years. Federer won 97.6% and 95.9% of his games on hard courts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This year he has won just 90.9%. Federer has won just six of the eleven competitions he has played on hard courts this year, just 55% of them. In 2006 he won 82% of competitions on hard courts, and he won 89% in 2005.

5. Federer is due a tougher ride to the trophy.
In the two previous Australian Opens that he won, Federer never faced anyone ranked above fifth in the ATP World Rankings at the time of playing. In theory his 'toughest' game was against the then fifth seeded Nikolay Davydenko in the quarter finals on the 2006 tournament. Federer's opponents in the two finals were the 54th ranked Marcos Baghdatis in 2006 and the 9th ranked Fernando Gonzalez in 2007.

6. Federer has had some recent hard court misery.
Federer has lost on a hard court as recently as last month in the ATP Masters Series in Paris, to David Nalbandian in straight sets, then ranked 21st in the ATP rankings. He lost again to Nalbandian on a hard court in October when Nalbandian was ranked 25th. He also lost to Novak Djokovic, ranked 4th, in the final of the ATP Masters Series in Montreal in August on a hard court.

7. It's about time Federer met Nadal in Australia.
Rafael Nadal is the only player to have beaten Federer in a Grand Slam final, beating him in the last two French Open finals, a title Federer is yet to win. Federer is yet to face Nadal in the final of an Australian Open.