The Betfair Contrarian: Why Andy Murray will win the Australian Open

Australian Open Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 20 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Can Murray power himself to a Grand Slam win?

"Whereas Federer has won five of the last six men's singles titles at Wimbledon and the US Open and Rafael Nadal has claimed five of the last six at Roland Garros, the fight to win the Australian Open has been less of a closed shop in recent years. There have been four different winners in five years, with just one of the last eight champions successfully defending their crown. "

Go on, be patriotic, says the Betfair Contrarian. Murray can win his first Grand Slam in Melbourne this month and is worth a wager at [6.6]

The Contrarian has a not entirely undeserved reputation as a miserable so-and-so who loves nothing more than profiting from the failures of sporting celebrities, but is he starting to embrace a softer side? In recent weeks, he has showered praise on Ryan Giggs, Chelsea and even public enemy number one Tiger Woods, and now he's rallying against Andy Murray's reputation as a Grand Slam bottler by backing the Scot at [6.6] to win the Australian Open...

Murray has a decent draw
The BBC labelled Murray's draw tough but he was always certain to be in the same half as either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, so it was actually no worse than expected. Being paired with Nadal was preferable as he has won two of his last three hard-court encounters with the Spaniard, including their last at a Grand Slam, while Juan Martin del Potro should hold no fear as Murray boasts a 4-0 record over him on the surface. There's even a chance, though slim, that Nikolay Davydenko [11.5] will finally carry his form into a major and record a third win in less than three months over Federer. That wouldn't worry Murray, who has won five of his last seven against the 28-year-old.

It's the most open of the four Grand Slams
Whereas Federer has won five of the last six men's singles titles at Wimbledon and the US Open and Rafael Nadal has claimed five of the last six at Roland Garros, the fight to win the Australian Open has been less of a closed shop in recent years. There have been four different winners in five years, with just one of the last eight champions successfully defending their crown. It's also the home of the upset, with Arnaud Clement, Rainer Schuttler, Fernando Gonzalez and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga all coming to prominence with unexpected runs to the final over the last nine years.

It's easier to break your duck on hard courts...
A whopping 19 of the last 22 Grand Slams have been claimed by Messrs Federer and Nadal, with the duo only being upstaged on the hard courts of the Australian and US Opens. Since Nadal's first Grand Slam win at the French Open in 2005, just two new champions have emerged Novak Djokovic on Melbournes hard courts in 2008 and Juan Martin del Potro last year in New York.

...and Murray is at his best on them
Murray's only Grand Slam final appearance came on the hard courts at Flushing Meadows in 2008 and 12 of his 14 career singles titles have also been won on the surface, including all four of his prestigious World Tour Masters 1000 trophies. He was actually favourite at last years Australian Open, but let himself down with a loss in five sets to Fernando Verdasco, an opponent he hadn't lost to in five previous professional meetings. To prove it was a fluke, he has beaten him on the three occasions that they have clashed since.

The big guns aren't firing yet
Defending champion Nadal claims to be back to his best after struggling with form and fitness in 2009, but hasn't won a title since last April. The last success for Federer (runner-up in Australia last year) was in Cincinnati last August, but only once in Australia has a losing finalist returned to win the following year. The form player on the tour right now is Davydenko, who beat Nadal and Federer to win the prestigious World Tour Finals at the close of last season, then overcame the top two again to be victorious in Doha. However, the Russian has been around since 2001 without ever reaching a Grand Slam final.