Nalbandian can be bitten by the "Mosquito"

Australian Open Betting / Scott Ferguson / 17 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Scott's Spot - Scott Ferguson tells us why Juan Carlos Ferrero can knock out the impressive David Nalbandian plus four other potential shocks on the cards

Sebastien Grosjean v James Blake

An entertaining match is promised with both players being shotmakers and having been ranked as high as four in the world. The Frenchman holds a 3-0 record over Blake though and has a far better record at the Australian Open. Three quarter-finals and a semi-final is miles ahead of Blake's consistent underachievement here - not once has he reached the last eight. Grosjean will be a clear outsider in the betting for this contest, and I'm not sure why.

Juan Carlos Ferrero v David Nalbandian

The battle of the baseliners with a past record of 2-2, with JCF holding a 2-1 advantage on hardcourt. Ferrero has looked in great nick this year, reaching the final in Auckland and dismissing Kiefer and Jones in straight sets. Both players are former semi-finalists here. Nalbandian has had his injury concerns and hasn't looked overly impressive in defeating local hopes Smeets and Luczak. There is little between these two and the value looks to be with the Spaniard.

Su-Wei Hsieh v Aravane Rezai

The qualifier from Taipei is on a great run, winning five matches in a row and was clinical in thrashing 19th seed Sybille Bammer for the loss of just two games. She gave up just four points on her first serve in that match. Her form is not just a flash in the pan, she also beat Gisela Dulko in the Hopman Cup and stretched Jankovic at the same event. Rezai, by way of her higher ranking, impressive win over Golovin and run to the final in Auckland, deserves to be favourite but I don't think it's as clear-cut as the odds make out.

Casey Dell'Acqua v Amelie Mauresmo

Feel free to accuse me of a bit of Aussie bias here but hear me out first. Mauresmo is nowhere near the top of her game and took 10 match points to defeat Shvedova yesterday. Post-Wimbledon last year she was 3-5 for the rest of the year. The nerves that have long affected her game seem to be back. Examining her record further and she seems to have a recent problem with left-handers, losing three of her last five to them. Dell'Acqua has halved in the last year, mostly due to a concentration on fitness work. This is Dell'Acqua's first journey into the third round of a major, but she will have massive crowd support behind her. Belief makes a huge difference at this level, now she knows she can win matches at this level. Price this match up a month ago and the Aussie is massive unders. Price it up today and I think she is overs.

Ekaterina Makarova v Nadia Petrova

Petrova is a former world number three but her form is nothing like that at the moment. She defeated a broken-down Nicole Pratt in her farewell match and then struggled past Anne Kremer in R2. Her recent record is blighted by injuries and there is no fear factor anymore from players on the other side of the net. The left-handed Russian teen Makarova knocked out my value tip Agnes Szavay in R1 and followed that up with a strong win over Yvonne Meusberger. Petrova is a clear favourite here but I would be inclined to lay her at such a short price. She should win but I'd much rather be taking the value in this one.