Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 24: The Aussie Open portfolio is open

Australian Open Betting / Jack Houghton / 17 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Davydenko is the value

"Nikolay Davydenko is due to meet Roger Federer in the quarter-finals and, given his recent record against the Fed, should probably be a shorter price to win overall. Either way, that quarter of the draw looks to hold the key to a Melbourne victory, so the Betting Challenge is having £10 on Federer at [3.9] and £10 on Davydenko at [14.0]."

Jack Houghton runs through a variety of markets at the Australian Open as his Challenge marches on towards profitability

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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No call-back yet from Norris McWhirter, but I'm almost certain my recommended punt of Andy Murray in last year's French Open at [30.0] was the last value bet ever struck on the Scottish pube-mop. Admittedly it would have been better value if I'd traded out at [5.0] - right before he lost to Gonzalez in the quarter-finals - but that's him all over isn't it? Amid numerous glorious runs of tournament form, he somehow always manages to mess-up the matches he should waltz through.

Added to a dubious choice of preparatory tournament - deciding to fool around with Laura Robson and others in the barely-competitive Hopman Cup; rather than testing his early-season form in the cauldron of Doha - Murray represents extremely poor value at [8.2] to win his debut Slam in Melbourne. But rather than opposing him in the outright market - which is beyond the means of the Betting Challenge bank - I'll be laying him in the Fourth Quarter market for £30 at [2.4].

To outflank me, Murray will likely have to beat Rafael Nadal and, whilst the Spaniard is yet to recapture anything like his best form, a second-placed finish in Doha at least shows he has progressed after his post-injury lows of last season. In the same part of the draw are Radek Stepanek (runner-up in Brisbane), Gael Monfils (a semi-finalist in Brisbane) and David Ferrer (once ranked four in the world): all players capable of beating Murray should Nadal fail to shine.

In the Winner market, Nikolay Davydenko is undoubtedly the form player. He might well be the tennis crowd's least favourite top-flighter - he has the pinched looks of a concentration camp inmate and has been involved in plenty of questionable matches - but it's worth remembering that he beat both Federer and Nadal en route to Doha victory: building further on a stellar close to the 2009 season that culminated with him winning the ATP Masters title in London.

Davydenko is due to meet Federer in the quarter-finals and, given his recent record against the Fed, should probably be a shorter price to win overall. Either way, that quarter of the draw looks to hold the key to a Melbourne victory, so the Betting Challenge is having £10 on Federer at [3.9] and £10 on Davydenko at [14.0].

Elsewhere in the draw, two other players are of interest at big prices. Andy Roddick, resurgent in the first half of last season under new coach Larry Stefanki, got 2010 off to a perfect start by winning in Brisbane. A semi-finalist last year, Roddick has a good record in Melbourne and, in what looks like a very open tournament, has to be supported at [30.0] coming from the easiest quarter in the draw. I'm having £10 on.

Although a bit of a punt, Viktor Troicki is worth an interest at [1000.0]. He is only 23, has been steadily moving up the ranks to his current position of 29th in the world, has won a couple of minor hard-court titles, and reached the last four in Doha. He is an unlikely prospect to win the thing outright, but might present a trading opportunity later on. I'm having £10 on.

In the women's tournament it's hard to see beyond Serena Williams. A four-time winner of the Australian Open, she was disappointing against Elena Dementieva in Sydney, but that was just a warm-up and Melbourne will likely see her back to her best. I'm having £20 on at [4.8].

Must go, Norris is on the phone.

This week's bets:
£30 LAY of Andy Murray at [2.4] in Australian Open Fourth Quarter market.
£10 BACK of Roger Federer at [3.9] in Australian Open Winner market.
£10 BACK of Nikolay Davydenko at [14.0] in Australian Open Winner market.
£10 BACK of Andy Roddick at [30.0] in Australian Open Winner market.
£10 BACK of Viktor Troicki at [1000.0] in Australian Open Winner market.
£20 BACK of Serena Williams at [4.8] in Australian Open Winner market.