Australian Open Betting: Big priced Baghdatis can prove to be a great trade

Australian Open Betting / Scott Ferguson / 13 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Scott's Spot - Scott Ferguson looks at the outsiders worth backing at big prices before the start...

Most previews of the Australian Open focus on the big names and the favourites in the betting. Scott Ferguson looks a bit further down, at players above 20 in the outright markets, to see if there's anyone who can make a run at the title.

The Aussie Open has a trend of finding someone new in the men's final. Seven times in the past ten years a player has reached their debut Slam final in Melbourne. And for several of them, it's been their only one. In theory, the draw should be fairly clear-cut with Federer, Djokovic, Davydenko and Nadal reaching the semis. But I'm struggling to remember the last time the top four seeds reached the semis of a major tournament. For Davydenko, most people would slot in Andy Murray but I'm more inclined to include Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman is one place above Murray in the rankings and currently holds a 2-0 h2h record over the Brit. At [95] to win the event rather than [19], I think he's far better value. The one concern about Gasquet though is his mental toughness. He has retired 12 times in his professional career already, and he's still only 21. The French media really get on his case about this, so keep this is mind if the temperature gets mighty hot in Melbourne.

Radek Stepanek has a fairly poor Grand Slam record but he did bow out of the US Open last year in probably the match of the tournament. Against Djokovic, the eventual runner-up in R2, he went down 7-6 6-7 7-5 5-7 6-7 in a thriller. Stepanek warmed up with a semi-final appearance in Sydney, coincidentally the same result as his fiancee Nicole Vaidisova (there's hope for all of us if he can land her!) and is the sort of player who just nags away at opponents. His main hurdle to overcome to reach week two will be David Ferrer who beat him here in five sets last year. It's difficult to trade a tournament with an odds-on favourite, particularly when he's in the same half, so it might be worth following him in match or to win quarter markets.

Also in that quarter, Marcos Baghdatis appears as a solid chance to emerge from a tough quarter. First he has to fight his way past two former winners in Thomas Johansson and Marat Safin, followed by Lleyton Hewitt just to meet Novak Djokovic. But if there is one player renowned for hanging on in marathon matches, it is the Cypriot. He progressed through three five-setters to reach the final here in 2006 as well as three seeds in the top eight. His one meeting against Djokovic went to 7-5 in the fifth at Wimbledon in the quarters this year. Good wins over Davydenko and Gonzalez at Kooyong tuned him up nicely for a solid showing at Melbourne Park.

The women's draw is even less cut and dried with the Williams sisters both in threatening form and ranked seven and eight respectively. The Eastern European contingent are out en masse, but few of them appear to be genuine challengers for the title. Until Jankovic and Kuznetsova can turn around 0-9 and 2-15 records against Henin, they won't be seen at the top of the betting too often.

Qualifying for the French Open started a run of 39-7 for Agnes Szavay last season. Back then she was just outside the top 100, now she is seeded 20. Her rise in rankings hasn't finished yet, and most of the seeds around her aren't world beaters. Kuznetsova is her main concern at the bottom of the draw and she's getting closer to beating her. Triple figure odds are big and she looks a great trading prospect.

As discussed last week, Elena Dementieva has revised her service action so she can finally get some pace and variety on it. She is the same quarter as Henin so it's unlikely she can go all the way but she has made Grand Slam finals before with her devastating groundstrokes. If her serve can handle the pressure that will be put on it, then the 400+ which has been snapped looks big overs.

Last but not least, the return of former no.1 Lindsay Davenport has been mighty impressive. She is 18-1 since returning from the birth of her first child. True, she hasn't faced many of the top players but the way she dominated in Auckland just over a week ago showed she is back with a vengeance. She faces Sharapova in R2 which promises to be an absolute cracker. Serena Williams was the unseeded danger last year, and while that's a hard act to top, Davenport could prove very tough to beat at any stage.

Have I missed any? Add your comments below....