Australian Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 15 January 2011 /

The Boz was up with the larks on Friday morning to catch the Australian Open Women's Tennis draw live. He has been at the form books ever since working out his potential first round shocks.

Tathiana Garbin to beat Marion Bartoli priced around [9.0]

Absolute monster price for what is essentially a very tight match up. Bartoli is in good form with a run to the semis at Brisbane where she lost to the unseeded German wunderkid Andrea Petkovic. Typical of Bartoli these days is that. She goes so far showing that Seles-like low groundstroke class and then puts in a no-show against the low seed and tumbles out. It could happen here and there's no sign that the Boz predicted Slam win is ever going to happen.

Bartoli faces 87 ranked veteran Italian Tathiana Garbin who has a strong 3-2 head to head plus over her. She's very much a bogey opponent for Bartoli who is a crazy price at [1.14] and could easily be the first seed to tumble. Garbin won their 2009 French Open Slam match in straight sets and has also beaten Bartoli on hardcourt where the match up is 1-1. Bartoli holds the sway only on her favoured grass surface. And whilst she might squeak through, she's absolutely no sure thing and even less value. Garbin is a colossal price for what I'd score as a close to 50-50 game.

Barbora Zahlavova Strycova to beat Aravane Rezai priced around [3.0]

The Czech output of improving players continues apace with Petra Kvitova heading the way and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova in the immediate slipstream. Up to 68 in the world rankings, she has another good, tight match up in the head to heads with the darling of the French glamour circuit - 19 ranked Aravane Rezai. The Czech won their latest bout in the 2009 Luxemborg event in three sets and showed the greater stamina and endurance to overcome Rezai's flair. The French girl blows notoriously hot and cold during games and so long as she stays in there, the Czech underdog can propel the head to head to a positive 2-1. She is another excellent value price at [3.0] to defy the ranking form.

Monica Niculescu to beat Timea Bacsinszky priced around [2.4]

Niculescu is one of my favourite new players and can often be relied on in odds turnover games. She is the outsider here ranked 86 whilst the 21-year-old Swiss Timea Bacsinszky has broken into the top 50 courtesy of an excellent 2010. It is the Romanian however with the 3-1 head to head lead and she also won in straight sets the only time they met on a hardcourt surface in Paris 2009. The head to head form is not the be all and end all and in essence, you'd call Niculescu a more likely victor on her native clay court. It also cannot be ignored though and is a very reliable pointer to value first round bets in all the Slams. She might prefer it when the ball bounces slower and higher but the Romanian's game is versatile enough to adapt and she's very much a youngster on the rise for me. Another value price for the first round shock.

Kristina Barrois to beat Akgul Amanmuradova priced at [2.2]

72 ranked Amanmuradova is a tough nut to crack but she is marginal favourite in this close match up courtesy of her higher ranking which kind of ignores the fact that the experienced German Barrois trounced her in straight sets here last year and has a clear 2-0 lead on the head to heads. That first set last year was a love set and such is the dominance the 81 ranked German showed in that set that I think the oddsmakers have actually called this the wrong way round. Not so much a first round shock when Barrois wins as a value bet!

Sandra Zahlavova to beat Renata Voracova priced around [2.0]

The lesser priced of my five picks is perhaps my strongest fancy. Yet another improving Czech ranked just 97 in the world up against her 82 ranked compatriot. Zahlavova has the decisive head to head advantage at 4-1 and 2-0 on the hardcourt surface. That makes her a terrific price at that kind of differential. They played in 2010 on clay at Bella where Voracova notched up her first and only win after a clear four straight defeats and perhaps she will approach this with renewed belief. Zahlavova holds the psychological ace though, knowing she has her compatriot's measure on the surface and I expect her to romp in. My nap selection.

Recommended bet is level stakes singles all five with one, two or three needed to prevail to successfully register a profit.

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