Australian Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 10 January 2011 / 2

Gary Boswell is an enthusiastic watcher of the women's game and here reveals his bets at the Australian Open

The absence of Serena Williams dominates the run up to next week's Australian Open in Melbourne. For once, we can enter the Slam outright portfolio with the near certainty that a Williams sister won't be wearing the crown.

Venus may play but she doesn't have a great record down under. Her knee is still troubling and she looks a solid gold lay at her price of [26.0]. You can add former champion Maria Sharapova to that side of the betting who is layable at a shortish [20.0] after her defeat in Auckland last week against Greta Arn. The Hungarian went all the way to a shock tournament win so maybe we shouldn't be too down on Shara, but the signs that she was approaching former fitness are sadly absent still. That shoulder looks to have taken a serious smack and thoughts are now that she - like Leyton Hewitt in the men's game - will never quite return to her early status.

Another to add to the lay group is Victoria Azarenka ([22.0]) who has demonstrated complete inability to cope with the climate at previous Australian Opens and local heroine Sam Stosur ([18.5]) who oddly enough cannot get her game together on hardcourt and you have a decent portfolio of big names at layable prices who can't lift the crown.

With that ammo in the belt, I go about looking for the four that can win it. The top three in the betting are difficult to dismiss. Kim Clijsters at [3.55] would seem short for a heavyweight whose slam wins have all come at Flushing Meadows. She traditionally struggles in this opening major of the calendar, but she is favourite because in Serena's absence, she is the senior tour star and her defence at the US at the end of 2010 was emphatic enough.

Clijsters still holds sway over her main challenger from the emerging elite - current World number one Caroline Wozniacki who rows in second fav at [6.4]. Her power game seems to ratchet up another notch every time I see her and with that serve - second only to Serena - she will surely win a slam soon enough. I shan't be laying the Dane nor grand dame Justine Henin either. Australia is not really her Open, but her comeback was prematurely and unsatisfactorily curtailed. Now fit and with Serena in absentia, the door is open for Henin to re-establish her credentials. She still has the best court movement on the tour but there is also that nagging psychological doubt for me that she is only really focused on winning Wimbledon as her comeback goal. I'm not wild about her as a bet at [6.6] although she certainly qualifies as a dangerous lay.

Francesca Schiavone's win at Roland Garros inspired me to continue believing that the underdogs can have their day in the women's game at the moment. At [85.0], I wouldn't have her high on my list here but her compatriot Flavia Pennetta makes my longshot list at [130.0].. Her doubles record with Gisele Dulko shone last year and hardcourt is her surface. She has reportedly taken a leaf out of Schiavone's book and upped her gym attendance in order to live with the big hitters and I like her chance this time as a back to lay.

My big two however are the two new kids on the block that fought out last week's final in Brisbane. Namely 20-year-old Czech Petra Kvitova - currently [44.0] but with potential for larger - and German Andrea Petkovic - on the market at [60.0]. I've written about Petkovic's impressive physique before and got myself into hot water so I'll not say any more about her other than she's seriously on my radar for the future. I think she is a star in the making and the competitive maturity is on a constant upward curve. Don't let her out of your sight!

Kvitova also has that oddball physique that often marks out the greats. In the Steffi Graf mould of tall, lithe, leggy players, Kvitova has often resembled a clumsy giraffe in her clumping forays around the court. You'll remember early descriptions of Serena Williams as the Rhinoceros in the China Shop on court and like Serena, Kvitova has the class where it matters - in the hands and the brain.

Like jockeys and golfers, great tennis players need deft grip and a way of thinking through their fingers. Kvitova is above her years in this department but the really impressive aspect of her game is the solidity on big points and the cussed competitiveness that refuses to accept defeat. It shone for me in her QF at Wimbledon against Kaia Kanepi where she stared defeat down over and over again in the game that refused to end.

That Kvitova went on to win and perform with credit in her semi against Serena was the first sign for me that she could handle Slam pressure and was a potential blinding star of the future.

Her win in Brisbane this week was only her second on tour but she is rising fast and against Petkovic, she was exemplary on the big points, saving 4/5 break points on her own serve and scoring 5/6 break points on the fearsome Petkovic serve.

That's Championship mentality. Might be a bit soon for her to be winning in Melbourne but with a talent like that, you can never rule it out.

The Boz's Outright Portfolio:

1pt Back PETRA KVITOVA at [44.0] or greater
1pt Back ANDREA PETKOVIC at [60.0] or greater
1pt Back FLAVIA PENNETTA at [130.0] or greater
1pt Back CAROLINE WOZNIACKI at [6.4] or greater
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1pt Lay VENUS WILLIAMS at [26.0] or less
1pt Lay MARIA SHARAPOVA at [20.0] or less
1pt Lay VIKTORIA AZARENKA at [22.0] or less
1pt Lay SAMANTHA STOSUR at [18.5] or less

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1. paul | 09 January 2011

   you have left out a notable with the initials V.Z.

2. boz | 13 January 2011

   True Paul and she likes it here but she took a pasting from one of my tips in the warm up this week and I'll leave her out. Not been convinced by her final appearances either. Touch of the Safina's and Dementieva's about her when chips are down. Kvitova is better long term.

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