Australian Open Betting / Mandeep / 30 January 2009 / Leave a comment

It's been a tough old tournament for these two stars of the women's game with extreme temperatures and plucky upcoming players just two of their challenges. Mandeep Dhanoa tells us why Serena's mental strength and experience will ultimately split the two.

This Saturday sees the second seed Serena Williams battle the third seed Dinara Safina for the title of Australian Open champion 2009. Serena has been in three previous Melbourne finals (winning all three), but Safina has an opportunity to upset the odds and crown a wonderful last six months. The winner will have the added bonus of becoming the new world number one player, in what promises to be a quality match.

Route To The Final ...

Much can be learnt from previous matches in this tournament, but it should be taken into account that the conditions were very different. As we have seen, the scorching sun has had a profound effect on the players, but these two ladies have suffered in similar ways.
Serena pretty much cruised through the first three rounds. Her first serious opponent was the talented Victoria Azarenka, who ended up being outdone by the heat.

Serena was struggling too, but was a break up in the second set ,having taken the first. She was in a worse situation in the quarters in the "Battle of the Beasts" (I'm obviously referring to their respective powerful styles). Kuznetsova was a set and 5-3 up but choked badly, allowing Serena to take the second and cruise through the third. The semi versus Dementieva was easier than expected, and her serving was much improved. As an added bonus to her, not to mention her backers, she also showed to be resolute in defence against her dangerous Russian opponent.

Safina opened up with some tough three setters before hammering the tubby Kaia Kanepi. She came through in three against both Cornet and local favourite Dokic in an epic encounter. During that quarter final versus Dokic, Safina showed her much improved conditioning and mental toughness to block out the partisan crowd and an inspired opponent, to make it through. A relatively easy two set win in her semi final against Vera Zvonareva secured her place in the final.

Power vs Power

Despite the extreme conditions, both players looked fresh and injury- free under the roof in their semi finals. Safina has struggled with fitness in the past, but a tough series of matches and events, together with much work during the off season means she can handle the match physically. Serena is similar, showing good conditioning against Dementieva. The women's doubles final for Serena, where she is playing with sister Venus, should have no significant impact from a conditioning perspective.

Physically the match will be fine for both players, but the mental side will be crucial. Serena certainly has the mental edge, having already won nine grand slams, three of which were in Melbourne. Dinara has played in one previous Grand Slam final, but lost convincingly to Ana Ivanovic at the French Open last year. Both are strong when under pressure and behind in a match, but crossing the finishing line is where Serena excels.

Both have similar styles: powerful ground strokes, great defence, decent movement and mental strength. However, Serena has the better serve (Safina's double fault count could be numerous and crucial), and knows how to win a slam.

Head-to-Head

In six previous meetings, Safina has only won once, and that was on clay. Only recent meeting should be noted, as Safina is a totally different player from pre-2007. However Serena won comfortably in two in their recent hard court meetings.

The Bets ..

Serena can ease her way into matches gradually, and may struggle slightly in the first few games, but I fancy her to come through to win. The current price on Serena is [1.45]. You may well see her go as high as [1.7] if she gets broken early. I would wait for the opening exchange of service games before hopefully backing Serena at higher than the current [1.45].

Safina is known for amazing comebacks having saved match points already in this tournament, so I would slightly overlay if Serena hits a very low price (1.01/1.02), leaving you green on both. Should a comeback occur and this go to three, I would keep the majority of profit on Serena.

Following my belief in the potential for a slow start, I would lay Serena initially in the Set 01 Winner market, with a view to back after game 2.

Under 21.5 games (in the Total games market) is also a back at around [1.8] - [1.9].