Australian Open Day One Tips: Melbourne Sunshine
Australian Open Betting
/
Sean Calvert /
16 January 2011 /
"Caro has been riding a wave of negativity surrounding her ranking, as she is yet to win a Slam, and her efforts here in Melbourne thus far have been average at best."
The first Grand Slam of the season gets under way on Monday and it's set to be a typically sizzling first day with plenty of interesting betting angles in the men's and women's draws. Sean Calvert selects the best.
The first matches of the Australian Open 2011 kick off at Melbourne Park in the early hours of Monday and there's plenty worth staying up for on Day One, including Roger Federer, Maria Sharapova, Novak Djokovic, Justine Henin, Venus Williams and Andy Roddick.
But the match that intrigues me today on the women's side is world number one Caroline Wozniacki against Gisela Dulko. Caro has been riding a wave of negativity surrounding her ranking, as she is yet to win a Slam, and her efforts here in Melbourne thus far have been average at best.
The furthest that the Dane has reached here is the last 16 and the noises in and around her camp recently have not been at all encouraging. In a move reminiscent of Novak Djokovic - and with similar results - she switched racquets from Babolat to Yonex recently and the evidence so far suggests that she's struggling with the totally different head shape of the Yonex.
Her first round straight sets defeat to Dominika Cibulkova a week ago in Sydney was hardly good preparation for Melbourne and Dulko is not the easiest of first round opponents.
The head-to-head is 2-1 to 'Sunshine', but Wozniacki may have more of a frown than a smile about her countenance at some point during or after this one. The pair did meet here in 2008, with Caro winning easily, but at [1.13] with a new racquet and no form, the bet has to be a lay of her winning 2-0 again at [1.45] or siding with Dulko on the handicap with a 6.5 game start at [2.2].
Dulko isn't exactly in great form right now, but she does tend to perform better at the bigger events, evidenced by wins over Ana Ivanovic and Victoria Azarenka in majors in 2010, so in the circumstances it's worth chancing she can rise to the occasion again.
On the men's side, there's plenty of value around today, with Fernando Verdasco, Sam Querrey, Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Robredo, Philip Kohlschreiber and Janko Tipsarevic all shaky-looking favourites and on court 10 there's a fascinating clash between Grigor Dimitrov and Andrey Golubev.
It's tough to choose one of the above, but I'm going to go with Lukasz Kubot to cause Sam Querrey a whole bunch of trouble as the focus. Querrey has been in wretched form since losing a thriller to Stan Wawrinka at the US Open last year and it looks like he hasn't recovered, with a 1-6 match record since.
In fact, he's won only one set out of the last 16 played and that form has carried over to 2011 with a first round defeat to Alexandr Dolgopolov in Sydney last week, so his brittle confidence must be on the floor.
Never the strongest mentally (to put it politely), it's hard to see Querrey suddenly springing into great form first up here and the safe bet has to be a lay of Querrey 3-0 at around [2.3].
Kubot is a decent, but limited player, however Querrey has lost to far worse comfortably before and the Pole already has six matches under his belt in Australia this season (won three, lost three) so the [4.5] outright is a good shout also.
Recommended bets:
Lay Caroline Wozniacki 2-0 at [1.45]
Back Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games at [2.2]
Lay Sam Querrey 3-0 at [2.3]
Back Lukasz Kubot at [4.5]