Australian Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 24 January 2009 /

It's easy to assume the Big Four of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are nailed on to make it to the semis of the men's draw but will that really be the case, asks Simon Mundie.If they're going to miss out, whose names can we expect to see there instead of theirs?

This year's Open is going pretty much to the formbook, with the odd notable exception. Next week things will certainly start hotting up in what appears to be the most wide-open men's tournament since the pre-Federer era. The big four are rightly favourites to make it to the semi-finals, but it's not as much of a formality as the markets would have you believe.

In the first quarter, the world number 1 from Spain Rafael Nadal, (1.33) to make it to the last four, should make it through to the quarter finals at the expense of Fernando Gonzalez ([10.5]).

There, he faces a tough encounter against either Gael Monfils ([6.0)] or Gilles Simon ([6.4]). Should he play Monfils, the Frenchman will be buoyed by his recent victory over Nadal in Doha; should Nadal play Simon, he will know he lost their last encounter too, so don't be surprised if either Simon or Monfils causes an upset..

As for Andy Murray, (1.34) favourite to advance from the second quarter, his title credentials will be severely tested if he is to reach his allotted slot in the semis. First he must beat one of the players of the tournament so far in Fernando Verdasco ([10.5]), who has dropped just 8 games in his last two matches against Arnaud Clement and Radek Stepanek.

However, Murray enjoys playing the powerful Spaniard, dropping a solitary set in five encounters. Assuming the Scot progresses, he will probably face Jo Wilfred Tsonga ([4.0]) who should beat James Blake ([10.5]). It was Tsonga who beat Murray in the opening round last year, and he would look to again impose his powerful game, particularly against the one area of Murray's game that still needs improvement - his second serve. Murray will need to use his head and employ the right tactics to frustrate the Frenchman (who may still be hindered by a back complaint), otherwise Tsonga could well become his Australian Open bogeyman.

The third quarter has the potential to surprise a few well-seasoned punters too. The defending champion Djokovic ([1.46]) is favourite to book his place in the last-four, not least in his own mind considering his withering attacks on Andy Murray's recent positive press.

However, Djokovic is not the same player he was 12 months ago. The second half of his 2008 campaign was unconvincing; the rot setting in with his straight sets defeat to Marat Safin at Wimbledon. He did save some face with victory in the Masters Cup in Shanghai, although he was fortunate to avoid playing the likes of Murray, Federer and Nadal during his run to the title.

His form prior to the Open was far from the level you would expect from the World number 3; he was trounced by rising star Ernests Gulbis in Brisbane, and lost to Jarkko Niemenen in the Sydney semi-finals when he had the chance to overtake Roger Federer as world number two.

The Serb's form in Melbourne has shown signs of improvement, but if Amer Delic had shown a bit more composure in the third round, he could have taken him to five sets, not to mention actually winning the match. Furthermore, the effect of Djokovic's questionable decision to change his racket should not be underestimated either; historically it impacts on a player's results, at least for a few months.

The man best placed to take advantage of any Serbian slip-ups is Andy Roddick ([3.8]). As the Nebraskan pointed out, he's not many people's favourite to challenge after a distinctly average run in the Slams in 2008. However, he arrived in Australia with a new coach in the renowned tactician Larry Stefanki, whose first objective seems to have been to get A-Rod to slim down his previously beefy frame, thus making him that little bit more mobile.

When Roddick posted his best season, finishing 2003 as world number 1, he was slimmer and more nimble than he has been in recent years. In the matches he's played so far, Roddick also appears to be staying right on top of the baseline, which shows Stefanki is trying to get him to be a bit more aggressive. In the past, Roddick's results improve quickly after making a change in coach. When he hired Jimmy Connors, he quickly reached the final of the US Open, having been written off as a fading force prior to that. It would be a welcome result for a lot of people if Roddick reaches the semi-finals at the expense of the more fancied Djokovic, but it shouldn't come as a total surprise.

It would take a brave man to bet against Roger Federer ([1.21]) completing the semi-final line-up. He hasn't failed to reach the last four of any major since the French Open in 2004 - a truly awesome achievement. However, that run has to end sooner or later. He shouldn't have too much trouble with Thomas Berdych ([15.0]), but Juan Martin Del Potro (5.2) in the quarter finals could be interesting.

Great runs by great players- think Lendl at the US Open or Sampras at Wimbledon- have streaks that look that they could go on forever, but are ended by the great player of the next generation. In Lendl's case it was Sampras on the way to the first of his US Open wins; Sampras himself was deposed at Wimbledon by Federer. Del Potro has the game to be the next big thing. Will a quarter-final against the majestic Swiss show he could be the next in line for greatness?

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