Australian Open Betting / Barry Millns / 12 January 2009 /

Tennis commentator Barry Millns talks us through the different chances of men's tennis so-called "Big Four" in Melbourne. And the conclusion he arrives at is that is that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have a mount to climb at the Australian Open - Mount Murray.

Less than a week before the start of the Australian Open, there is no doubt which of the world's top four is in the best form going into the first major of the year. Ever since Andy Murray rose to No.4 in the rankings, following his run to the final of the US Open, he has, for the most part, upstaged the three men ranked above him. And all of them will be hoping he is in the opposite half of the Melbourne draw.

Since losing for the first time to Murray in that memorable semi-final in New York, world No.1 Rafael Nadal has played only 12 matches on tour, losing three of them to Gilles Simon, Nikolay Davydenko and most recently Gael Monfils. He also lost the final of the Abu Dhabi New Year's exhibition to Murray, is struggling again with sore knees and has not claimed a title since he had a gold medal hung around his neck last August in Beijing.

For world No.2 Roger Federer, beating Murray to retain his US Open title 'saved' the Swiss star's season in 2008. But while he now needs only two more majors to surpass Pete Sampras' record of 14, Murray has had Federer's number ever since their final in New York.

Three of Federer's four losses in his subsequent 19 matches have been to the Scot, who beat him from a set down in each one just as he did in their exhibition semi-final in Abu Dhabi. Federer may have recovered from the back problem which forced him out of the Paris Masters Series last October after he retained his title in Basel, but he no longer has that air of invincibility about his game and looks like he needs a new coach to help him regain his edge.

For Djokovic, returning to Australia as the defending Open champion will bring its own pressure. Now the hunted rather than the hunter, he made a disappointing start to 2009. This after having turned what would have been an extremely poor second half of a season to an ok one by lifting the Tennis Masters Cup in the last event of the year, after a six-month title drought.

Following a late arrival in Brisbane beyond New Year celebrations, Djokovic made an early exit at the hands of Ernests Gulbis. The Serb's rusty game was not helped by his recent change of racket (from Wilson to Head) which he had only been using for a fortnight; and his wildcard appearance this week in Sydney is bound to come under intense scrutiny.

Seeded to meet Djokovic in the Sydney semi-finals is none other than Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman finished runner-up to the Serb last year in Melbourne, but has scored three of the five victories over Djokovic in his 15 matches since the US Open, which brings us back to Murray.

This time last year Britain's No.1 arrived in Melbourne amid some wild expectations after his success in Doha, only for Tsonga to burst his bubble in the opening round. So, despite great advances since, Murray and his team are wisely taking nothing for granted in his latest bid to win a first grand slam, irrespective of whatever everybody else is saying about him.

For the record, Murray has won 22 out of 24 tour matches he has played since the US Open, losing only to David Nalbandian in the Paris Masters Series (after winning 12 successive matches in the previous two and a half weeks), and to Nikolay Davydenko in the Tennis Masters Cup following his epic three-set round-robin victory over Federer - in a match he did not need to win!

Kicking off 2009 with back-to-back wins over James Blake, Federer and Nadal, to win the Abu Dhabi curtain-raiser was an impressive declaration of intent, backed up last week by his exploits in Doha. So it comes as no surprise that Murray is now trading as joint favourite with three-time champion Federer at [3.95] for the Australian Open, while Nadal (yet to make the final in Melbourne) is trading at [5.6] and Djokovic at [8.8].

As I said, events this week in Sydney could tell us much more about Djokovic but at first glance his current price is very tempting. But regardless of Murray's nationality, an objective assessment of the Briton's game with all that he has achieved and learnt over the last 12 months would suggest he is currently THE man to beat.

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