Australian Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 14 January 2009 /

Simon Mundie tells us why Djokovic, Nadal and Federer all have several tricky hurdles to overcome if they are to finish the saeson as world number one. Which opens the door to Andy Murray, specially if he wins the first Grand Slam of the year next week.

The 2009 tennis season may only be officially one tournament old, but there's no doubt who the man to beat is; Andy Murray. The young Scot finished 2008 in superb fashion, winning back-to-back Masters series titles as well as reaching his first Grand Slam final at the US Open.

And he's opened this year in even more emphatic style, retaining his Qatar Open title as well as beating the world's top two, Federer and Nadal in the exhibition tournament in Abu Dhabi. As a result, Murray is favourite to win the Australian Open alongside the legendary Swiss (both [3.95] on Betfair). Don't be surprised therefore if Murray does take his first Grand Slam title down under, but you shouldn't even be shocked if he is ranked World number 1 in time for this year's US Open.

The first reason Murray could achieve that lofty goal is down to how few points he has to defend between now and Wimbledon. While he did succeed in winning a few minor titles, one of which he has already successfully defended, his results in the bigger tournaments during the first half of 2008 were lacklustre. He bombed out in the first round of the Australian Open to Jo Wilfred-Tsonga ([22.0] for glory in Melbourne) last year, and had disappointing runs in the Masters events on the hard courts in Miami and Indian Wells. It would be a huge shock if he were to have similar results this time round, as not only is he consistently beating lesser players, but he's beating them without ever needing to reach top gear.

Murray's clay court season is also likely to see an improvement this year, and that's down to his improved ability when it comes to creating pace off the ground. Previously, Murray was little more than a counter-puncher, which meant he was often powerless on clay. He may not win the French this year, but expect some decent runs in the big events played on dirt.

A further reason why Murray could soon be astride the rankings is the form of his main rivals. Djokovic ([8.4]) is clearly not the player he was last year at present, as shown by his recent defeat to Ernests Gulbis ([70.0]). It could be down to his recent change in racket brand. A similar decision has cost many players over the years, like the Croatian player Ivan Ljubicic; his switch from Babolat to Head ended his role as a contender in the big events. While Djokovic will be back, he has so many points to defend between now and Wimbledon that a drop is likely.

As for the current World number one Nadal ([5.5]), he was soundly beaten by Gael Monfils in Qatar, and missed the end of 2008 with injury. However, similar to Djokovic, a hindrance for the Spaniard could be a change in kit. He has ditched the sleeveless tops and long shorts for a more sedate, classic outfit. The result? His injured knees are far more prominent; he looks far younger and looks less intimidating.

While that may not sound important, tennis is a mental game and auras are all important. Nadal no longer looks like He-Man, and that may give his opponents a slight boost. In a game of fractions, that could be enough to leave him susceptible. One would still expect him to clean up during the clay court season, but if he has to withdraw from any events due to his knee problem, he will drop points, which would be a boost for Murray.

That leaves Federer. While you would expect him to have a better start to 2009 than 2008, for now it seems Murray has his number. When the Scot beat him in Qatar, Federer looked beaten before the end. The only other time that's happened was during his humiliation at the hands of Nadal in last year's French final. While the 13-time Grand Slam Champion looked dejected, Murray was nonchalant. He acted like it was no great surprise to him, which conveys just how confident he feels. He now expects to win when he steps on court against the other members of the 'Big Four', and rarely looks troubled against his lower ranked opponents. The only players who could still pose him a problem include Tsonga, Nalbandian ([48.0]) and Del Potro ([65.0]), but he would start favourite against all of them.

But before we get too carried away, it's time to see if Murray can deliver at the Australian Open. Federer has admitted he finds Murray's status as favourite surprising, but if the Scot does win, the smart money could be on a new world number one before the year is out. He's currently [3.85] on Betfair to finish the year as the ATP world number one with Australian Open co-favourite Federer at [3.35] and the current world number one Nadal at [2.32]; it's [6.6] on the man they call the "Serbinator" - Novak Djokovic, if you're interested. This is a slightly illiquid market so you may well get bigger odds than those just quoted. "What you don't ask you don't get" is one of those expressions you hear time and again in everyday life and that may well apply to this market as well, whichever of these four you fancy.

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