ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 21 November 2011 /

By the end of the day we'll know a lot more about the fitness of world number one Novak Djokovic, who faces Tomas Bedych. We should also be a few quid in profit after backing Andy Murray to win in straight sets against David Ferrer, says Sean Calvert.

Our bets in the ATP World Tour Finals got off to the perfect start on Sunday when the match between Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga went into a third set and comfortably over the 21.5 total games mark.

And then Rafa Nadal made it two out of two, despite struggling with a sickness issue that forced him off court to the nearest latrine during his clash with Mardy Fish.

Monday sees the start of Andy Murray's World Tour Finals campaign and by the end of the day, we should have a much clearer idea of the fitness of Novak Djokovic.

The Scot couldn't have asked for a more comfortable match to open up his quest for a first year end championship title, as he takes on Spaniard David Ferrer, who Murray has beaten the last four times in a row. And someone he's never lost to on a hard-court.

Ferrer is at the O2 for the second time and after having lost all three of his matches last year in straight sets, including a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Murray, the world number five will be looking for an improved performance this year.

Murray has only ever dropped one set against Ferrer on a hard-court and their last two meetings, which took place a matter of weeks ago in Tokyo and Shanghai, were also straight sets win for the Scot.

Ferrer doesn't have the power to trouble Murray in the way that Tomas Berdych did in Paris and on these stodgy indoor courts, Murray's extra power and defensive skills will probably force Ferrer to go for too much.

Recent losses to Juan Monaco and John Isner on indoor hard won't have done the Spaniard's confidence much good and he'll be looking to regain it before the Davis Cup Final by winning a match here. It won't be today, though.

Murray's post-US Open form has been excellent and he should get his campaign off to the perfect start by taking this one in straight sets, at around [1.53].

The other bet I quite like in this one is the [1.85] about the match lasting less than 21.5 games.

Of their seven three set career meetings, five of them have finished in 21 games or less and of the other two, one was 22 games, so their clashes don't tend to last long.

The evening match is altogether tougher to call, with question marks over the fitness of Djokovic in his match with Berdych.

Both of their last two meetings have ended in retirements - both from Berdych - and if Nole isn't quite right, then that could easily be a hat-trick come Monday night.

But Djokovic says that his shoulder his fine and that he's been serving at 100% in the last few days, so although I'm a tad sceptical about such information, it's all we have to go on at the moment. So it will have to do.

Berdych has only ever beaten the world number one once and that was on grass, so Nole has a 7-0 record over the Czech on hard and indoor hard, which makes the [1.44] on him look quite generous.

Berdych's post-US Open form has been good, with a title in Beijing and a semi final in Bercy with that win over Murray. But Nole doesn't give him the time to tee-off with his big ground strokes, which will surely be the case again today.

They played here at the O2 last year and Djokovic won 6-3, 6-3. The Berdman will be nervous and will need to bring his 'A game' to the court tonight. If he doesn't, I expect a similar result and will be backing the [2.14] about a 2-0 Djokovic win.

Recommended Bets

Back Murray to beat Ferrer 2-0 at [1.53]
Back Djokovic to beat Berdych 2-0 at [2.14]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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