General Election Betting: What does each party have to do?

General Politics Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Our next leader? That's what the odds say...

"Even if the odds suggest that the battle to win the most seats is a foregone conclusion, the margin of that victory remains very much open to question."

Campaigning is effectively under way for the 2010 general election. Paul Krishnamurty sketches the scene.

With the smart money pointing towards May 6 as the date of the General Election, the party campaigns are effectively under way. All the recent polling evidence suggests a clear victory for David Cameron's Conservative Party, but there is still everything to play for in both political and betting terms.

Even if the odds suggest that the battle to win the most seats is a foregone conclusion, the margin of that victory remains very much open to question. A useful guide to market sentiment is the PBIndex. This index offers a prediction of the election result, based on the average opinion of political gamblers and reflected in the Party Seats Line. The current prediction is a Conservative majority of 56.

Much can change over the next three months though, and in any case there is little consensus about how national vote shares will translate into seat totals. Dozens of pivotal constituencies remain too close to confidently predict at this stage. So what realistic targets remain for each party, and which key issues could make the difference?

Read about the Conservatives here.

Read about the Labour Party here.

Read about the Lib Dems here.