General Politics Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 March 2010 /

Paul Krishnamurty talks us through five more constituencies whose outcome could have a huge impact on the result of the general election.

Nottingham South

Conservative Target No. 189 (9.95% swing required)

There are few easy pickings this far down the Tory target list, where we are usually dealing with seats they didn't even win in 1992. Nearly a third of this electorate voted for an alternative to the big-two parties, with the Lib Dems faring particularly well amongst the significant student population. In fact, with potential inner-city Tories in short supply, it's not entirely impossible that Clegg's party pull off an upset from third place.

Verdict: Likely to stay Labour, but Lib Dems worth a punt at [50.0]

Walsall North

Conservative Target No. 193 (10.2% swing required)

Both Walsall seats feature in the Tory target list, with 'North' the slightly likelier gain. The task is anything but straightforward, as David Winnick has been MP since 1979 and is one of the most respected Parliamentarians. UKIP and BNP polled around 10% combined last time, at the expense of both main parties. The resilience of these minor parties, or ability to entice angry Labour voters, could be the crucial dynamic.

Verdict: Vulnerable if the night goes terribly for Labour, but David Winnick should survive.

Cannock Chase

Conservative Target No. 196 (10.3% swing required)

Another seat where the Tories will need to pin their hopes on a wider Labour meltdown to have a chance. It is more winnable than most similar numerical targets though, as they used to hold it in the 1980s. Nevertheless, their scope for advancing in ex-mining communities is extremely limited, and it can't help that the local Conservative party is in disarray, with numerous councillors recently defecting to the Lib Dems.

Verdict: Labour hold

Birmingham Northfield

Conservative Target No. 197 (10.35% swing required)

Despite the daunting numbers, this once marginal seat is within range for the Tories. They held Northfield before 1992, and could benefit from a wider Labour collapse in the region. This local economy was dominated by Rover until its closure, and Labour's failure to protect their core supporters in such manufacturing consistencies has left them vulnerable. Much depends on whether the BNP ease the Tory task by eating into Labour's majority, which seems a distinct possibility.

Verdict: Tories a good value bet at odds-against

Southampton Itchen

Conservative Target No. 198 (10.45% swing required)

Communities Secretary John Denham has a fight on his hands here, because the Labour Party are dying as an organisation in the South of England. His saving grace could lie in the fact that the Lib Dems registered 21% in 2005, as they will compete hard for any further Labour defectors. Nevertheless, as they held the seat in the 1980s, this is a seat that could go Tory in a landslide.

Verdict: Labour still favourites, given the narrowing of the national polls.

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