General Politics Betting / Editor / 05 February 2010 /

To win an overall majority, the Conservatives need to add 117 seats to their current total of 209, which has been calculated to account for the boundary changes since the last election. Paul Krishamurty has selected 50 constituencies that will be pivotal in their quest to reach that majority. Here are the first five.

Finchley and Golders Green

Conservative Target No. 1 (0.05% swing required)

Bidding to overturn a notional majority of just 31, Finchley heads the Conservatives' list of targets. Given that this used to be Margaret Thatcher's patch, its safe to conclude that Labour can only win here in a year when they're well ahead of the Tories nationally. Clearly, that isn't the case in 2010, which might explain the decision of MP Rudi Vis to stand down rather than fight this election.

Verdict: Like the other nine seats where they are defending a majority of less than 1000, Labour need a miracle.

Aberconwy

Conservative Target No. 5 (0.4% swing required)

Polling evidence suggests the swing from Labour to Conservative is even greater in Wales than the national average, so they must surely land their easiest target in the Principality, right? They probably will regain this former stronghold, but its not quite that simple because all four parties are competitive. After their successes in the Welsh Assembly and European elections, Plaid Cymru look the biggest threat, though doubts remain over the nationalists' ability to advance beyond their Welsh-speaking core.

Verdict: A split opposition should ensure Tory victory

Cheltenham

Conservative Target No. 10 (0.55% swing required)

Forty-one of the top 200 Conservative targets are held by the Liberal Democrats, and it is this battle that will ultimately determine the scale of any Tory victory. Numerous different local, tactical and incumbency factors come into play in these genuine marginals, and Cheltenham is no exception. Given the middle-class profile of this area and the tiny swing required, one would assume a resurgent Tory party would be unbeatable in Cheltenham, but the Lib Dems haven't given this up by any means, and got a boost by winning control of the council last year.

Verdict: Close, but ultimately a Tory seat out on loan.

Eastleigh

Conservative Target No. 11 (0.55% swing required)

Again, this is much tougher than the numbers suggest. Though their lead is a puny 530 votes, the Lib Dems expect to receive substantial tactical support from a significant Labour minority prepared to switch in order to keep the Tories out. Furthermore, MP Chris Huhne is one of the party's leading figures and a regular on TV. That usually helps the often ignored Lib Dems' cause, as does incumbency. The early money in this market favours them, too.

Verdict: Huhne can hang on for the Lib Dems.

Westmorland & Lonsdale

Conservative Target No. 14 (0.9% swing required)

This Cumbrian constituency offers a fascinating insight into the importance of incumbency in Lib Dem-held seats. This was arguably their best result of 2005 - the only success of their 'decapitation strategy' against leading Tories. A narrow defeat was blamed on former MP Tim Collins' lack of activity at a local level, so one would expect a better fought campaign along with the national swing would enable it to return to its traditional Tory hands. Early betting on the seat suggests the opposite though, with Lib Dems' Tim Farron apparently proving a very popular local representative.

Verdict: It seems incredible that the Tories could ever be outsiders here in a good year, but the early money suggests otherwise.

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