The Brigadier's Lay of the Day

/ The Brigadier / 07 December 2007 / 1

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The Brigadier goes to Sandown in search of another winning lay...

15:05 Sandown - LAY - Mighty Matters (Forecast - 2.72)

Today's race is the 15:05 at Sandown, it's a class 3 handicap chase over 3 mile 110 yards. Mighty Matter is forecast favourite, trained by C E Longsdon and ridden by Mr J Snowden.

The cretinous Mighty Matters has won his last three races, all in class 4 handicaps from marks of 93, 105 and 114 last time. He has been raised to a mark of 125 today and is up in grade to class 3. The handicapper should at last have his measure from this mark. In eight previous runs in class 3 company the useless rogue has never even been placed.

Connections stated that after his win last time that he is a better horse over 2 1/2 mile than he is over 3 mile, stepping up to 3 mile + on a testing track is not ideal as his career best form has come at fast or galloping tracks.

Mighty Matters is a better horse on good or faster ground, although he did win a novice chase back in 2005 on gd-sft, he has been unplaced on 6/7 races on a gd-sft surface.

Beat The Boys and Ice Bucket can go well but I will be laying the talentless swine 'Mighty Matters'.

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - December 6th

14:00 Leicester - LAY - Abutilon (Forecast 1.9)

Today's race is the 14:00 Leicester, it's a class 4 handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles. Abutilon is forecast favourite trained by B Powell and ridden by Tony McCoy.

Abutilon won a handicap over 2 mile 2 furlongs last time at Fontwell and is raised 9lb by the handicapper for that win and I, the Brigadier, believe he may struggle today. Stepping up two furlongs in trip he has to prove he is effective over this far and he is up in grade after racing in class 5 last time.

Both career wins came at Fontwell, which is a sharp left-handed track so today's testing right-handed course may not be ideal - he has been unplaced on six of the seven occasions he has raced at a RH track without ever winning this way round. The only previous race he had on a testing track he could only finish 7/16.

L'Oiseau and Dune Raider should both go well but I will be laying the horrendous 'Abutilon'.

Today's lay finished second

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - December 5th

13:40 Plumpton - LAY - IWILLREMEMBERYOU (Forecast - 1.5)

Today's race is the 13:40 Plumpton, it's a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2 mile 5 furlongs.

Iwillrememberyou is forecast favourite, trained by C E Longsdon and ridden by Sean Quinlan.
The horse absolutely hacked up by 40 lengths on his seasonal reappearance - a first run for eight months last time out at Towcester - and is turned out quickly under a penalty to try and get a win before the handicapper raises him. But he is likely to bounce and find it hard going today just four days after that performance.

For his two career wins he carried lowly weights of 10-7 and 10-5. He is carrying a huge weight of 12-3 today (25lb more than last time). On the three occasions he has carried over 11 stone he has been beaten a combined total of 216 lengths.

Those two wins came over 3m 2f on a sharp track and 3m at a testing track, dropping down in trip to 2m 5f on a sharp track like Plumpton should expose his lack of speed, as staying is his strong suit not pace.

Although he has won on gd-sft and heavy ground, he is unproven on soft. On the two occasions he ran on soft he was 19/25 and 12/27, though those runs were both over 2m, which could be the sole reason for the poor runs as opposed to the ground.

If he runs to the form he ran to last time then he will win under this penalty but the bounce factor, the huge weight, the shorter trip, the ground and the uniqueness of Plumpton combined together will hopefully mean that he does not run to form on this occasion.

Venice Road and Abit Irish can go well in a race that is possibly more open than the market suggests but I will be laying the disgraceful plodder Iwillrememberuou.

Today's lay finished first

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - December 4th

14:20 Lingfield - LAY - Hieroglyph (Forecast - 3.0)

Today's race is the 14:20 at Lingfield, it's a class 4 nursery over 1 mile. Hieroglyph is forecast favourite, trained by Mark Johnston and ridden by Greg Fairley.

The useless Hieroglyph finally lost her maiden tag at the fifth time of asking, last time out at Musselburgh over 7 furlongs in a pathetic fillies-only maiden. She's making her handicap debut today from a mark of 74 and is likely to struggle against the more battle-hardened boys.

She is a front runner and it is hard to make all and win at Lingfield and she's likely to be vulnerable in the closing stage of the race to the fast finishers. Hieroglyph is the only horse in the field unproven on the polytrack and all 4 rivals are course winners. Trainer Mark Johnston has only had four 2yo winners from 49 runners in the last 5 years and that poor strike rate is easily put down to the track bias which favours hold-up horses.

Afram Blue and Geezers Colours should go well but I will be laying the cretinous rogue Hieroglyph.

Today's lay finished last

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - December 3rd

13:50 Fakenham - LAY - Dundridge Native (Forecast 1.5)

Today's race is the 13:30 at Fakenham, it's a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2 mile 7 furlongs. Dundridge Native is forecast favourite, trained by Jim Best and ridden by Christian Williams.

Dundridge Native finally lost her maiden tag at the 19th attempt at Plumptonlast time out, on what was her first run for 8 months. Today's race is likely to come too soon just 8 days later and she is likely to run flat.

The useless mare has a 7 lbs penalty today for winning a class 5 novice handicap. She had a claiming jockey riding last time so is effectively 10 lbs worse off today with Christian Williams on top. She is up in grade to a class 4 handicap and is racing over a shorter distance than she did for the win.

Domenico and Water Pistol can go well but I will be laying the ludicrously under-priced mare 'Dundridge Native'.

Today's lay finished first

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The Brigadier | 04 December 2007

If anyone is following in with the lay of Hieroglyph today then I would advise you lay it in running.
Its currently trading at 4.8 (much bigger than the forecast I was working off) and I would never advise laying a horse at this price. With it being a frontrunner it is likely to trade at 3.0 or shorter in running and I will be setting my lay in running and wont be taking the current 4.8, as a lay at that price hits you too hard if it wins.