Suggestion: No bet.

2.10
Opposing Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can be very dangerous, as those of us who laid Tartan Bearer in the Dante will testify, but Sugar Ray got things all his own way up front when winning at Bath and faces much stronger rivals here. I doubt that Watamu can beat him, as he has seemed most at home on the all-weather of late. Pippa Greene's purple patch last season came with a fair amount of give underfoot, but he is lightly raced and remains an interesting horse for big handicaps. Dansili Dancer is another proven force at this level. He should go well if fully tuned up, but a 7lb penalty for a narrow success here on Wednesday will make following up difficult for the reliable Birkside.

Suggestion: Small lay of Sugar Ray.

2.40
This could turn messy, as Royal And Regal may well be withdrawn if rain fails to arrive and there is a distinct lack of pace with or without him in the field. The natural starting point is Honolulu, who excelled from a mark of 111 in the Ebor here last summer but showed a tendency to wander off the bridle when beaten at short odds in the St Leger and Ascot's Cumberland Lodge. Sergeant Cecil's rich York pedigree is tempered by his loss of form since his win in this race last year and, with no little trepidation, Geordieland is suggested as a sporting alternative. Granted, his tendency to falter off the bit is a concern, but Jamie Osborne feels he may well have rectified some physical problems and, if that is the case, this may be the day for him to finally land a big one.

Suggestion: Back Geordieland to win.

3.10
Raymi Coya is useful yet needs a career best to defy her 5lb penalty, while Mistress Greeley is open to improvement but needs to take a fair step forward to progress past these useful rivals. Musical Bar is extremely well bred. However, assessing what she beat at Newbury is tough, so the lightly raced Makaaseb is nominated as the most likely winner. Granted, she failed to build on the promise of her Newmarket debut win when stepped up in class for the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes last October. Softish ground seemed against here there, but these conditions will suit and a string of big entries suggest Michael Jarvis still feels she has plenty of scope for improvement.

Suggestion: Back Makaaseb.

3.45
Twelve face the starter, but Marvellous Value and Rash Judgement look very much the pair to focus on. Marvellous Value has lived up to his name by winning both his starts this spring and the form of his impressive Haydock success was franked when the placed horses dominated a Beverley handicap last week. The ground will be much faster on this occasion, though, and it remains to be seen whether he will be equally effective on it. Rash Judgement thrived on racing as a juvenile and ran a corker when hampered at Sandown on his reappearance. He looks bound to go close with Moore aboard for the first time, while Hamish McGonagall is another worth a positive mention after his promising effort at Thirsk.

Suggestion: Back Rash Judgement.

4.20
Another fiendishly difficult York sprint handicap. Richard Fahey broke his duck for the week in Thursday's finale and will have Wyatt Earp well primed to try and repeat last year's win from a slightly lower mark. He'll be all the better for a pipe opener at Beverley, while Damika is in the form of his life having been touched off in a hot contest at Newmarket and his trainer Richard Whitaker has a fair record at this track. Mastership is one to keep an eye on with the summer in mind on his debut for John Quinn, while Dandy Nicholls saddles two fancied contenders in Machinist and Buachaill Dona. Adrian Nicholls has plumped for Buachaill Dona, who ran well from a poor draw at Chester, and this will be the true test of whether he is at his very best over six furlongs.

Back Wyatt Earp to place.

4.55
The obvious one here is Cape Colony, who got off the mark in willing fashion on Kempton's Polytrack before following up in similar style on easy turf at Windsor. He's still fairly treated and looks bound to go close if he handles this faster surface, but don't be surprised if Laterly proves a viable each way alternative. Thomas Tate's horses are in fine fettle and Laterly is bred to be well served by middle distances this season. Granted, he finished behind Full Speed at Redcar last time, but this faster ground will suit his flowing action much better and by York standards this handicap looks a shade light on really progressive rivals.

Suggestion: Back Laterly win and place.

1:40
Aegean Dancer, 8.75 in to 6.60
Green Park, 6.34 out to 8.80
Strike Up The Band, 11.0 out to 18.0

2:40
Twice Over, 2.0 in to 1.72
Tartan Bearer, 5.0 out to 8.80

3:10
Blythe Knight, 4.70 out to 6.40
Mias Boy, 6.80 out to 9.80

4:20
Awinnersgame, 3.20 in to 2.50
Shaweel, 11.0 out to 18.0
Reve De Soleil, 11.5 out to 29.0

4:55
Strobe, 13.75 out to 30.0

PERTH

2:00
Polly Whitefoot, 4.70 out to 7.40

4:45
Paradise Bay, 6.80 in to 4.60

SALISBURY

1:50
Arthurs Girl, 11.0 in to 5.50
Ghaidaa, 6.80 out to 9.40
Gingham, 12.5 out to 17.0

4:00
Outside Edge, 6.20 out to 8.20

4:35
Tiger Trail, 11.0 in to 9.60
Obe Royal, 6.60 out to 8.60

I woke up on Sunday morning, and the weather being so good I decided to treat the wife to a day at the races. Three group races at Leopardstown in the sun sounded like pure bliss. Except it wasn't - for me anyway.

If you could back a horse to be second only, I'd be quids-in now. No less than four of my bets came second, while the wife managed two winners at [3.05], and [9.19]. So how come this Canadian woman who knows little about The Sport of Kings managed to win plenty of money, while her racing fanatic husband went home empty handed?

Annoyingly, on the way to the track, I mentioned that Pat Smullen had a good record at Leopardstown. She latched on to this piece of information, and backed accordingly. So much for my hours of form study!

There's nothing worse than not listening to your own advice.

Anyway, her new found love of racing means she's going to have a flutter this weekend. My male ego is damaged, and I need to put up a decent performance to save face. I'm hoping some of the following produce the goods and restore the tipster pecking order in the Bailey household!

Thursday, York, Dante Stakes (2:40)
When a horse opens up odds-on, I usually look for a reason to lay - as punters often get carried away and back such horses into ridiculous prices. Twice Over is currently trading at [1.68] for the Dante Stakes, but I just can't seem to find any reason to click that pink button, and a back bet at that price is fast becoming my preferred choice. It's hard to define what makes a classy horse, but every time I watch his previous three outings, I get that sense that Cecil may just have a great animal on his hands here. There's been some interest in Tartan Bearer, but I think Centennial poses the real threat. John Gosden has been in fine form so far this year, and is sure to have his colt fired up for this. There are only two places up for grabs, but I'd happily take [2.8] or higher for Centennial in that market.

Suggestions: Back Twice Over to win, Back Centennial to be placed if priced [2.8] or higher.

Friday, York, Yorkshire Cup (2.40)
Johnny Murtagh has a cracking record in Group races, and following him has proved lucrative over the past few years. However, O'Brien is having mixed fortunes recently, and backing the likely favourite Honolulu at a restrictive price doesn't make much appeal. He's shown the odd encouraging spark in the past, but always seems a little over his depth in group company. Instead, I'm happy to side with in-form Royal And Regal, who seems to be back to his old self after some poor runs last summer.

Suggestions: Lay Honolulu, Back Royal And Regal.

Friday, Dundalk (8.10)
Don't say you weren't warned! Many months ago, I suggested that following Ger Lyons at Dundalk's all-weather track could prove a decent money-spinner, and had you put a tenner on each of his horses, you'd be well over £200 in profit to Betfair prices. The layers are staring to cop on, and prices are getting shorter, but it's worth taking a chance with Lyons' Kalcan in the second maiden of the evening. He was, in fact, one of those horses that let me down on Sunday, but he'll appreciate the step up to seven furlongs, and can continue the profitable trend for Lyons.

Suggestion: Back Kalcan.

Sunday, Gowran Park (2.15)
With three little ducks next to his name, Jim Bolger's Comadoir hasn't yet been able to shake that maiden tag off. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however, as he appeared to struggle with the soft/heavy ground on each occasion. I've been waiting on him to run on good ground, and if the weather holds up, he should have a cracking chance of putting things right.

Suggestion: Back Comadoir if the ground is good or better.

* * *

Racing is all about opinions so if you have one - make it known and post your thoughts below!

York, 2.40, Twice Over, Win

Salisbury, 1.50, Siyasa, Win and Place

* * *
Wednesday 14th May: To York where son of Lucky Story aims for a win at today's big meeting

Caranbola is a very interesting runner at York today in the 4.20.

Lucky Story is the "now" stallion of the season and this inexpensive purchase should go close in this event. There's good form in the book too, as the selection won a fair maiden at Ripon in fine style last time out when staying on stoutly to win. In addition to this, his conditioner is in fine form.

At present Caranbola is trading at [3.35] on the exchange.

Today's Selection:

York, 4.20, Caranbola, Win

* * *
Tuesday 13th May: Nick's looking for maiden form to work out at Southwell

Longevity looks to have a very solid chance at Southwell today in the 4.20.

The selection ran behind Moyenne Corniche last time out at Newbury finishing a very respectable fourth in what appears to be a very decent maiden. Today Longevity has only a couple of serious rivals in this race and I have backed him at his current price of [2.34] on the exchange which appears to be very fair.

Today's Selection:

Southwell, 4.20, Longevity, Win

* * *
Monday 12th May: Will Every Second count at Windsor races today?

Over at Windsor in the opener (5.55) I like the look of Every Second in what is a most interesting race.

At the first time of asking the selection ran very well to finish second to Missile Dodger at Bath, you could say he ran a winning race that day as the victor is clearly smart. At present Every Second is trading at [3.1] in the win market and should go very close in this contest.

Today's Selection:

Windsor, 5.55, Every Second, Win

This colt by Selkirk put up an impressive effort in winning a very good looking Newbury maiden in mid-April by four lengths. Importantly, the form of that race is beginning to work out as seen by the performance of Longevity winning at Southwell a couple of days ago.

Today the selection faces a stellar field so it'll be tough, but we have a good chance of landing the 80/20 at a fair price.

Today's Race: Perth 7.40

Recommended Bet:
5 point win / 5 point place BALLYHALE

A nice profit yesterday with the success of Alleviate at Great Leighs for a profit on 29.20 points on the day. Ballyhale won well at Wetherby springing a 16/1 surprise - but there was no fluke and the ten-year-old could easily follow-up.

2.10
The vast majority of turnover here will revolve around Promising Lead and, provided Sir Michael Stoute's filly is tuned up for her reappearance, the layers look set to be on the wrong end of the business. In short, Promising Lead is a borderline Group 1 filly based on her narrow Longchamp defeat last October who competes off level weights in a Group 3 contest here. She was turned over at odds-on in a conditions race at this meeting last year but is a different model now and can take this on the way to higher things this summer. Samira Gold looks one of the most likely to trouble the favourite, but don't be surprised if Under The Rainbow runs well at a big price now she returns to a more suitable grade.

Suggestion: Back Promising Lead

2.40
Three of the last four Derby winners won this and, as John McCririck never tires of telling us, no horse has ever gone on to Epsom glory having been beaten in the Dante. The stats are persuasive, right enough, but can Twice Over follow in the hoofprints of North Light, Motivator and Authorized? In short, he probably can. Among his rivals, Frozen Fire and Tartan Bearer are both unproven out of maiden company and anyone backing them is effectively taking a punt on the skill of messrs O'Brien and Stoute. McCartney came up well short in last year's Dewhurst, while the fact that Frankie swerves him for Young Pretender, who also fell short at Group 1 level last autumn, is hardly a boost to his chance. That leaves us with Centennial and Twice Over. Centennial is a bold galloper who proved he had trained on well with a gutsy Sandown Classic Trial success, but Twice Over showed much better form to pip subsequent Guineas fourth Raven's Pass in the Craven and can run the Gosden colt down late on provided fast ground doesn't prompt his withdrawal.

Suggestions: Back Twice Over and lay Tartan Bearer

3.10
The key point here relates to how well Lang Shining reacts to his first encounter with a fast surface. It's possible he will relish it, and his Newbury Spring Cup win looks very solid in the light of what Zaahid and Proponent have achieved since, but his effectiveness under the conditions has to be taken on trust against some seasoned northern milers. Blythe Knight is a stone higher than when winning this last year but should go well again, while Annemasse and Fishforcompliments provide Richard Fahey with a strong hand. The freewheeling New Seeker is very hard to assess after failing to beat a single horse in his last four starts of 2007, but Mia's Boy has thrived for Chris Dwyer and will probably be sent off at longer odds than he ought to be.

Suggestion: Small lay of Lang Shining

3.45
Only five runners, but a race full of questions. Is Charlie Farnsbarns still the same horse who chased home Authorized in the 2006 Racing Post Trophy? He's plainly had problems to have run just once since, while Docofthebay thrived in big fields last year but is a quirky type who may need a bigger field and stronger pace than he will encounter here. Royal Power and Striving Storm have much to prove after going off the boil last season, but Benandonner is in the form of his life after going down fighting off a mark of 92 in a highly competitive Spring Cup at Newbury. Richard Fahey's gelding is an uncomplicated ride with no fitness doubts and looks bound to go close again.

Suggestion: Back Benandonner

4.20
A very hard race race to assess. Four Star General didn't show a massive amount on his debut but is bred for the job and plainly thought capable of better and O'Brien has won this before, while Lord Shanakill came home strongly at Thirsk and is plainly good enough to show up well in maiden company. However, this has often fallen to a newcomer and Awinnersgame and Shaweel are both bred to be well above average. All in all, this looks one for the paddock posse rather than those sitting in front of their laptops.

Suggestion: Watch and learn

4.55
Any number of possible winners in a complex stamina test. Kayf Aramis has to be on the short list back on the mark he won this from last year, while Lady Dedlock has been hiked 11lb for her emphatic Kempton win but remains open to progress having left Charles Cyzer to join Jamie Poulton. Accordello, Bugsy's Boy and Mister Arjay also boast fair claims, but the value here could lie in a place lay of Inchpast and Noddies Way. Inchpast has revived on the all weather of late but looks likely to find life tougher from his revised mark of 80, while Noddies Way finally broke his duck at Lingfield but this looks a great deal more competitive.

Suggestion: Place lay Inchpast and Noddies Way

2:20

Radnor Lad [4.9] out to [6.2]

Fontwell

2:00

Stellenbosch [1.78] in to [1.41]

3:35

Yellow Flag [5.5] out to [6.8]

York

1:40

Gulf Express [7.6] in to [5.0]
Tastahil [6.0] out to [8.2]
Ladies Best [9.6] out to [20.0]

2:10

Meydan Princess [5.7] in to [4.2]
Hawaana [14.0] out to [20.0]
Fathsta [17.0] out to [36.0]
Swift Gift [9.4] out to [17.0]
Cristal Clear [30.0] out to [130.0]

2:40

Lush Lashes [5.9] in to [3.45]
Dar Re Mi [2.8] out to [4.4]
Sovereigns Honour [22.0] in to [10.5]
Cruel Sea [9.0] out to [20.0]
Comeback Queen [22.0] out to [90.0]

3:10

Hoh Mike [16.0] in to [13.0]
Utmost Respect [9.6] out to [13.0]
Soldiers Tale [9.6] out to [15.5]
Sonny Red [23.0] out to [38.0]
Garnica [17.0] out to [29.0]

3:45

Rajeh [9.0] out to [13.0]
Red Wine [8.2] out to [22.0]

4:55

Allied Powers [4.4] in to [2.9]
Tomorrows World [6.6] out to [8.8]
Fujin Dancer [13.0] out to [18.0]
Port Quin [23.0] out to [34.0]
My Mate Max [30.0] out to [48.0]
Sweet Lightning [14.0] out to [26.0]

This son of Kyllachy is certainly bred for speed looking in to his extended pedigree, where there are plenty of winners. In addition to that the stable is going well at present and the trainer is capable of getting a horse ready at the first time of asking.

With this in mind we should have a fair chance of landing the 80/20 at a good price.

5.20
Given A Choice, 2.58 in to 2.06
Moayed, 5.7 out to 6.8

5.50
Sazerac, 15.5 in to 9.0

6.20
Tenancy, 5.0 out to 8.6

6.50
Alleviate, 8.2 in to 5.2
Proper, 7.6 out to 9.6
Bold Adventure, 13.5 out to 22.0

7.20
Cerebus, 4.1 in to 3.45

7.50
Stringsofmyheart, 7.2 in to 5.2
Miss Marauder, 3.5 out to 5.4

8.20
Once A Gulch, 4.1 out to 5.6

NEWTON ABBOT

6.10
Trinity Rose, 5.1 in to 4.2

6.40
Rapscallion, 2.08 out to 2.42
One Nation, 8.1 in to 5.6

8.10
Red Man, 5.1 in to 4.3
Howard Howard, 9.0 out to 12.0

8.40
Estate, 5.6 in to 4.5
Don't Be Bleu, 4.7 out to 5.9
Voir Dire, 30.0 in to 11.0
Critical Stage, 13.5 out to 18.0
Josear, 18.0 out to 40.0

KILLARNEY

5.55
Presenting Proform, 4.1 in to 3.35
Annagh Lady, 4.0 out to 6.4

6.25
Loughanelteen, 4.5 out to 6.8
KeepNitreal, 11.5 in to 8.0

6.55
Reisk Superman, 2.3 out to 2.74
Zitenka, 8.0 out to 11.5
Lescers Boy, 40.0 in to 14.0

7.25
Chevie, 2.61 in to 2.13

Today's Race: Great Leighs 6.50

Recommended Bet:
5 point win ALLEVIATE

Apologies but the graph generating software has developed an error - but the value bet for tonight is Alleviate at around [5.2] in the 6.50 at Great Leighs. It's easy to see why Boz is favourite but Alleviate is also not without support in the market and she shaped well when third at Bath last time out.

The famous highwayman could make the same trip in just over two hours on the iron horse nowadays and, given the standard of racing on offer on the Knavesmire this week, who could blame him for leaving Black Bess in her stable?

Three of the last four Derby winners have staked their Epsom claim by winning Thursday's Dante Stakes, while Alexandrova took the Oaks after being beaten in the Musidora Stakes in 2006.

Any number of Royal Ascot scorers have used York as a springboard in recent years and, if recent history is any guide, certain themes will come to the fore once again.

Sir Michael Stoute will send his usual strong team north, while it is a racing certainty that Yorkshire trainers like Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston will have their horses primed to peak for a fixture which means so much to them.

Godolphin have often used York in may as the stage to signal that reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated, while the presence of a powerful Aidan O'Brien raiding party adds further spice to the mix.

In short, it's the greatest midweek Festival this side of Royal Ascot. Sadly, that man Turpin ended up on the gallows on the Knavesmire back in 1739. Let's hope we don't feel like following suit when day one of Dante week draws to a close.

1.40
Richard Fahey has won this twice in recent years, but Mesbaah and Smart Instinct have questions to answer at present. By contrast, King Charles has come back from Dubai in fine form and will go very close if he reproduces the form he showed when staying on powerfully behind Proponent at Newmarket. The other two worth a positive mention are Folk Opera and Blue Spinnaker. Folk Opera returns from a long break but is plainly open to improvement, while Blue Spinnaker won this race in 2006 and has been revitalised this spring. Taking on Sir Michael Stoute at York can be very risky, but Gulf Express was well adrift of King Charles at Newmarket and will need to have come forward quickly to reverse the form just ten days later.

Suggestions: Back King Charles win and place. Lay Gulf Express for a place.

2.10
A high draw can be problematic over York's turning seven furlongs, but Generous Thought is highly progressive and still looks set to close from stall 12 given that the form of his Newbury second behind subsequent Chester scorer Huzzah looks so solid. Meydan Princess also falls into the well handicapped bracket, as she flashed home at Newmarket despite a troubled passage and can race from the same mark here. Kaldoun Kingdom is another strong contender in a fiercely competitive handicap, while it will be useful to see what the market makes of the Stoute pair of Seasider and Tanweer. Neither of the pair is well treated on the face of it, but Tanweer looks more appealing as a lay proposition given that he has left the impression that this trip will be too sharp for him as a three-year-old.

Suggestion: Lay Tanweer for a place

2.40, Tattersalls Musidora Stakes
This looks the most significant Oaks trial yet, but it's also very tough to assess given the inexperience of the main contenders. Dar Re Mi looked a relentless galloper when bolting up at Sandown, while the vibes from Ballydoyle suggest the impeccably-bred Moonstone has always been rated their best Epsom prospect. Strict ratings followers will be keen on Lush Lashes following her strong-finishing sixth in Natagora's 1,000 Guineas, while Cape Amber is another who falls into the could-be-anything category based on her impressive Newmarket debut last summer. In summary, the most likely scenario is that Fortune will try to draw the sting from the finishers by kicking for home on Dar Re Mi at the three-furlong pole. Only a bluffer could be adamant about what will happen subsequently, but Cape Amber has more to prove than most after a long absence and might just be worth a small lay in the win and place markets.

Suggestion: Lay Cape Amber win and place

3.10, Duke of York Hearthstead Homes Stakes
Expect a volatile market here, as several leading hopes need to come late and may not be at their very best over a fast six where the winner will probably break 1m 10secs. US Ranger's fine chance at the weights is tempered by the fear that a slightly stiffer track would be ideal, while Soldier's Tale got going too late for third last year and it could be more of the same on this slick surface. Balthaazar's Gift is another hold-up merchant who could find things happening quickly here and, all in all, this looks a race which might just see some less fashionable horses come to the fore. War Artist tops the list. Granted, his penalty for a South African Group 1 win makes life tricky, but he caught the eye enduring a rough trip in the Abernant at Newmarket. Assertive and Prime Defender also caught the eye in the Abernant, while Galeota's early dash could see him outrun his long price on a track which suits him well.

Suggestions: Dutch War Artist, Assertive and Galeota at big prices in the win and place market. Lay Soldier's Tale and Balthazaar's Gift for a place.

3.45
Another race in which tactics could be vital, as several leading fancies are best played late. Chief among them is Ainama, who came from way after traffic problems back at Chester and is bound to be very popular from the same mark. I wouldn't want to lay him given the acceleration he showed there, but the lightly-raced Sin City is of interest at longer odds if the market suggests that his canny connections feel he is primed for action after a lengthy absence. Veteran Sporting Gesture looks set to go well again on a track which he relishes, but Ella has yet to prove herself on fast ground and Red Wine seems unlikely to get the strong pace he requires as he bids to maintain his good rapport with the inexperienced Stacy Renwick.

Suggestions: Back Sin City win and place. Lay Ella in the win market and Red Wine in the place market.

4.20
This hardly looks a hot race by York standards and getting a firm angle is tough given that videos of the leading contenders are currently unavailable on the ATR website. The pace seems set to come from Ripon winner Caranbola and Donny runner-up Majuba, while Grand Honour is above average but also has a 7lb penalty for his Wolverhampton win. It's odd to see Ed Dunlop's newcomer Masamah fitted with headgear for his debut and, all in all, this looks one of the less appealing betting contests on an otherwise fine card.

Suggestion: Time for a soothing light ale.

4.55
A solid first day at Chester last week was spoiled slightly by a lay of Allied Forces in the finale. It's asking for trouble to take Michael Bell's horse on again, but this is his fourth run in 19 days and, more importantly perhaps, this is the fastest ground he has encountered. Collection and Indian Days are both viable alternatives, while the way that Fujin Dancer surged clear late in a Wolverhampton handicap which is working out suggests that this longer trip will be tailor made. That man Stoute is responsible for one of the potential improvers lurking at the bottom of the weights. Tomorrow's World is the filly in question, and she's bred to relish middle distances, but she didn't look anything special last year and the market ought to help as regards whether major progress is expected on her handicap debut.

Suggestion: Back Fujin Dancer win and place. Lay Allied Forces and Tomorrow's World for a place.

And in racing, the Derby is struggling to capture the imagination with little more than three weeks to the off. Indeed, after a week of inconclusive or irrelevant trials, the Blue Riband of the sport is still short of a cast list to sell to the public.

The 2,000 Guineas used to be seen as the best trial for Epsom, but times have changed and it's far from certain if any of the runners at Newmarket will double up. The winner, Henrythenavigator, is more likely to pursue a miling campaign, reflected in current back odds of [25.0], and the gallant second New Approach has the Irish Guineas as his immediate target.

Those idiosyncratic tracks Chester and Lingfield are not everyone's idea of fun, but the challenges they present a racehorse may not be bad preparation for Epsom and there's no denying both have thrown up their share of Derby victors.

Chester's Dee Stakes and Vase went in carbon-copy fashion to Tajaaweed and Doctor Fremantle respectively, both looking progressive in justifying good support and passing muster on the clock to boot.

Punters struggling to split them may be spared the headache, however, as Doctor Fremantle (in the same ownership as current favourite Twice Over) could wait for Royal Ascot and hence is seemingly neglected at [40.0], whereas Barry Hills' Tajaaweed has shortened to [14.5].

Lingfield's Derby Trial lost much of its import when Derby second favourite Curtain Call ([7.8]) wasn't risked on the drying ground, though after reportedly paying £3.75m for the colt over the winter that was very much his connections' prerogative.

Curtain Call's dismissal of just two rivals on his Nottingham return leaves some room to doubt his substance (the runner-up was a well-beaten fifth in a Newmarket handicap subsequently), but his is a pedigree to die for in terms of the Derby distance - by Sadler's Wells out of a Darshaan half-sister to Hernando - and he'll now get his first chance at the trip on the day itself.

In his absence, Aidan O'Brien's Alessandro Volta ([27.0]) prevailed, but not before he had wandered across much of Surrey, the inevitable conclusion being that Epsom's camber is not the place for him.

The trial performance that did make watchers sit up was that of Casual Conquest in Sunday's Derrinstown Stud Stakes at Leopardstown. Dermot Weld's colt showed Ballydoyle hype-horse Washington Irving to have feet of clay in storming to a six-length win, only for post-race debrief to confirm certain Irish trainers are not in thrall to the Epsom classic. Casual Conquest's back price of [15.5] would halve if plans change.

So it is 'as you were' then, with Henry Cecil's unbeaten Twice Over virtually unmoved at the head of the betting at [4.8] ahead of his mock exam in York's Dante Stakes. This Group 2 has become the No. 1 trial in recent times, the winner going on to Epsom glory in three of the last four years, and the jigsaw will look more complete after Thursday's renewal.

Twice Over is reported to be 'working the house down' in preparation, a comment that sounds unequivocally positive, you might think. However, the more cynical might deduce Twice Over is galloping more like a miler than a 12-furlong horse, leaving the stamina doubts up in the air.

Twice Over faces five opponents on the Knavesmire. John Gosden's Centennial ([15.5]) made all in last month's Sandown Classic Trial but has yet to get the pulses racing at Timeform House judged by a rating of 108, pedestrian compared to Twice Over's 122p.

Sir Michael Stoute's Tartan Bearer has achieved a good deal less still thus far, but this brother to Golan is evidently held in some regard, as his presence in the Dante field confirms. He trades as short as [15.0] for Epsom.

Godolphin throw two more dice in Young Pretender ([75.0]) and McCartney ([42.0]), and O'Brien sends over the hitherto unconsidered Frozen Fire ([60.0]).

Perhaps of more significance, though, is the absence of Kingdom of Naples ([18.0]), the shortest-priced of his stable's umpteen Derby entries but not seen in public since a winning debut last October. As Henrythenavigator reminded us, though, you write off the might of Ballydoyle at your peril.

Age
When a new flat season arrives, there's always plenty of lively and exciting debate about what stable has the best debutantes, and which three-year-olds can frank last year's form. Amid the hype, the older horses often get overlooked. Remember, form is the punter's best friend, not speculation. Older horses usually have plenty of runs under the belt, and there's not so much guesswork involved. Stoute is in this game long enough to know which races to enter his older horses in, and is an excellent decision maker in this regard. Due to his careful race planning, his horses aged four and older have a very decent win rate of 26%. Indeed, had you stuck a tenner on each since 2004, you'd be nearly £1000 richer today.

Days since last race
Most punters are wary of backing a horse that hasn't been seen in some time, but there's no need for such worries with Sir Michael Stoute. In fact, horses that have a break of three months or more perform extremely well (28% win rate). Blindly backing each has shown a healthy return over the years. Spanish Moon, Heaven Sent, Jamboretta and Ask are just some of the 2008 winners so far.

All-weather
As mentioned earlier, Stoute performs well at Wolverhampton, but has a good record on the all-weather as a whole. He specialises in training his all-weather horses for the medium to long trips (1m2f or more). Since 2004, he's had 15 winners from 47 bets at these distances, and this approach shows a very healthy return to level stakes.

* * *

As usual, we welcome your comments and suggestions, so share your thoughts below.