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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day

RSS / / 05 October 2007 / 2

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Soapy Danger presents no danger at all

15:50 Newmarket - LAY - Soapy Danger (Forecast 2.5)

Today's race is the 15:50 at Newmarket. It's a listed race over 1 mile 4 furlongs. Soapy Danger is forecast favourite, trained by Mark Johnston and ridden by Kevin Darley.

Soapy Danger has won 50% of his races so it may seem a bit harsh to call this one a cretin, however I am expecting him to run like a rogue on this occasion.

He was off track for 13 months after fracturing a pastern in last year's Great Voltigeur. He ran a great race to finish 2nd on his first start back but this race may come too soon for him and he is likely to bounce and run below form today.

He was 10 kilos above his highest winning weight last time and unless he has been to weight watchers in between, he may still need this run.

We have some heavyweight stables on our side to get this rogue beaten including Saeed Bin Suroor, John Dunlop and Sir Michael Stoute so I will be laying Soapy Danger.

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  1. Lucy Rathbone | 05 October 2007

    Are you still the same person as your style of writing seems to have changed a lot recently and alarm bells started to ring when your lay did not win yesterday. I am still a little bitter from when you suggested laying Scott's Grey and it won at 9-1 and I was on. I don't agree with you today Soapy Danger is progressive and has already picked up where he left off 5 wins and 4 seconds from 10 starts says it all and I agree with you that there are other runners in the race with chances Godolphin would love to win their own race. Nice to see you are laying shorter prices though.
    Lucy
    Newmarket

  2. Godfrey Hoopington-Charles | 10 October 2007

    Hello Lucy

    I am indeed the same person. I am sorry that you are bitter with me since you layed Scots Grey. All of my lays are forecast at 3.5 or shorter, I will not lay a horse above this price.
    I have to find the days lay and write by 6pm on the evening before the race. Obviously forecast prices can end up being very wrong and the weather and markets can change very quickly. Any lay that does drift above 3.5 then I just leave it alone or try to get matched at a shorter price in running, that way you dont pay out too much when they do win.
    Also with the lay of Scotts Grey one of the runners slipped up on the flat and brought down 4 other horses. With 5 horses being taken out by one slip the lay was certainly weakened which a lot of the knockers forgot/chose not to mention.
    As for Soapy Danger that is a serious horse and he will take some beating next time he races as he was overweight and running too soon on this occasion. Next time he runs I am more likely to be a backer as I think this is a horse to follow.