The Brigadier's Lay of the Day

/ The Brigadier / 25 October 2007 / 4

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

He may be a Dasher but there's no way he'll be crossing the line first...

14:50 Ludlow - LAY - Dasher Reilly (Forecast - 2.82)

Today's race is the 14:50 at Ludlow, it's a class 4 beginner's chase over 2 miles and 4 furlongs. Dasher Reilly is forecast favourite trained by Evan Williams and ridden by Paul Maloney.

But Dasher Reilly is making his debut over fence's today and is likely to need the experience. He may havewon on his first ever visit to a racecourse in a Galway bumper but his career has gone downhill ever since and he remains a maiden over hurdles after five races.

Sasso, Michabo and Looks The Business all have useful experience and hold strong claims in this race.

Dasher Reilly is very one-paced and is always going to be vulnerable so I won't hesitate to lay the cretin.

Today's lay finished second

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(4)

BIG CHEESE | 25 October 2007

Good lay today of the second favourite well done.
Here are my thoughts on the Racing Post Trophy on Saturday what are yours?

Declaration of War was beaten two and a half lengths by Rio De La Plata in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies) race on Arc day at Longchamp. Rio De La Plata had been busy and I would not read too much in to the Dewhurst form behind New Approach last Saturday at Newmarket where the Godolphin runner finished unplaced. At the beginning of the week you could get 12-1 about Peter Chapel-Hyams runner with William Hill but in contrast Blue Square had the Okawango colt priced up at 6-1. When Saturday comes I'm almost certain that Declaration of War will be a lot shorter as punters snap up the each way money. In the Superlative stakes at HQ in July the selection went down by a short head to Mick Channon's Hatta Fort another runner to finish behind New Approach last week but that form has a very solid look to it. This is the colt's toughest assignment to date but I am certain that he is more than capable of finishing in the first three for his trainer who saddled last years winner Authorized. If Declaration of War wins he will complete a hat trick for Peter Chappel-Hyam in the Racing Post Trophy having first won it back in 1998 with Commander Collins. I am well aware that this race is extremely difficult to win and my selection faces a very strong Irish challenge. Ballydoyle field too respected runners for Aidan O'Brien who has the best record in this race by far having won it four times in the last ten years and is always to be feared. Curtain Call trained by Mrs John Harrington ran a very impressive race last time winning by four lengths pulling away from the smart Domestic Fund in a group two at the Curragh and completes the Irish challenge. I have backed Declaration of War each way at 12-1 and I am confident that he will be placed at the very least.
The Brigadier | 25 October 2007

Dear boy the race is very competitive. I find uncompetitive races the best betting mediums for E/W punting to be honest so will most likely be a watcher rather than a player in this race.
Rio De La Plata needs better ground than the good-soft he had last Saturday to show his best form. Rio De La Plata still managed to beat Declaration Of War very comfortably on good-sft in his previous race so that form is likely to flatter Declaration of War to be honest.
The 2yo form of Mr Chapple-Hyams would be a worry for me with 15 of his last 16 2yos being unplaced.
Looking at trends of recent winners of the Racing Post Trophy the earliest debut of any of the last 10 winners was June 28th. War Of Declaration has been a 2yo on the go since May 19th and that is a huge negative against the horses chances of being primed at 100% for this as very few horses can be at the peak of form at the start and the end of the season. Also 7 of the last 10 winners had no more than 2 previous runs. It will take a mammoth effort for a 2yo who started the season way back in May and has already had 5 races this season to land this race.
As I said Im not personally interested in betting in competetive races but I would say the winner will come from one of four horses - Tajaaweed, King Of Rome, Frozen Fire or Ibn Khaldun if I had to nail my colours to one horse it would probably be Stoutes.
Thankfully I dont have to have a bet though so you can rest assured dear boy that I will be cheering yours on all the way home and I really hope it wins for you and lands a great 12/1 bet.

Kind Regards

Godfrey Hoopington-Charles
Big Cheese | 26 October 2007

Good comments Brigadier you have some very valid points and I've taken them onboard thanks for that much apprecited.

Have a good day and a prosperous weekend.
Big Cheese | 26 October 2007

Forgot to say Godders I would have thought Hamdan Al Maktoum's number one jockey would have been aboard his only runner in the Racing Post Trophy not down at Newbury unless Richard Hill's thinks Shamayel can take the listed race at 4.00 which I think he can and Almajd has no more than each way claims in the group three but we'll see.

Martin Dwyer is more than capable in the number 2 spot aboard Tajaaweed but he has a lot to prove. I'm still hoping for a big run from Declaration of War to make the frame and land the each way money and Peter can never be underestimated as I'm sure you know he keeps his owners well informed and is very honest about the chances of their runners and pound for pound he's one of the best trainers out there again as I'm sure you know.

Once again thanks for your input