Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 25 November 2011 / 1

The early betting gives Paul Nicholls a better chance than most of winning another Hennessy with Aiteen Thirtythree and Michel Le Bon at the top of the market, and Neptune Collonges also in the field. Read what our star columnist thinks of the trio here

I have the known and unknown running for me in the Hennessy, and a win for either wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. But any Hennessy is desperately difficult to win, and this is no different.

Nothing would give me more pleasure than to see my nephew Harry win on Neptune Collonges, who is one of my favourites at Ditcheat. Placed in Gold Cups, he has also won three Grade 1 races for us and showed he was no back number when winning the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January. He is the class of the race but his weight reflects that, he is fully exposed and odds of [50.0] on Betfair probably are an accurate reflection of his chance.

I backed Aiteen Thirtythree at 33-1 each way for this race after he won the novice chase at this meeting last year.

Obviously, you take a bit of a flier backing a horse for a handicap a year in advance, especially when you don't even know the weights or the opposition. But I have always had him down as a Hennessy horse and nothing he has done since has lessened my faith in his winning chance here (In fact, if he wins it will be the second leg of an 1833 double this week, as Paul Barber's cheese of that name won the Gold Award for Cheddar at the World Cheese Awards earlier in the week. I kid you not!).

And then there is Michel Le Bon.

Now, if you asked me which was the most likely of my three horses to win - or maybe ask for the safest selection - I would have to say Aiteen Thirtythree. And I don't think what you are about to read contradicts that.

He has had a classic build-up to the race, one that I have been fortunate to win with Denman twice and Strong Flow in recent years.

But if you could guarantee that he would put in a clean round of jumping and that his obvious inexperience doesn't count against him, then I would say that Michel Le Bon must have a big chance.

Obviously, those are very big ifs in a race as competitive as the Hennessy. And I don't think any horse has ever won the race on just its second chase start, and Michel comes here without a run since winning the 3m novice chase at this meeting by 60 lengths two years ago, having been off with a leg injury. We were tempted to go for the Badger Ales en route to this but we didn't want to leave his Hennessy behind at Wincanton and, besides, we had The Minack for that valuable prize.

But one thing you can be sure of is that Michel comes here primed to the minute, so the lack of a recent run doesn't bother me unduly. And if you think that Aiteen Thirtythree has been a long term project for this, I have aimed Michel at this for 18 months and I have always told his owner Graham Roach that he would make his comeback in the Hennessy.

He has had two schooling rounds at a racecourse in a preparation that has also seen him jump over 200 fences at home, and a racecourse gallop last Friday with Sonofvic, who ran an awesome race yesterday, and Neptune Collonges has put him spot on for this. He is fit enough, all right.

Strong Flow won this by 14 lengths in 2003 and this horse gives me a similar feel in that I would like to think he could develop into a Gold Cup horse this season. So, off a mark of just 146, I have to be hopeful.

I suppose those bullish comments could come back to haunt me, but this column is all about my honest thoughts, and that is how I genuinely feel about Michel's chance. But I can tell you now that it will have been one of my best training performances if he did win. A short head behind last week!

It wouldn't rank anywhere near the pride and emotion of Kauto's Betfair Chase win, but it would give me an equal sense of professional satisfaction in many ways.

And I suppose that would be the same with Aiteen Thirtythree, in that a long-term plan would have been realised.

He may not be battle-hardened in big fields and fast-run handicaps but if any horse has run a more promising prep race for this than he did in running Somersby to three lengths off levels over 2m5f at Kempton, then I haven't seen it.

Clearly, the winner did the form no harm at Ascot on Saturday, and this track and a longer trip will see my horse to much better advantage.

Of course, I fully respect Great Endeavour, and the likes of Wayward Prince and Beshabar, and any Hennessy is desperately difficult to win.

But we go there in hope - and no little confidence.

And I would just like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has contacted me after Kauto's win last week. I have never had so many letters, emails and texts.

And two letters that meant most to me were from ex-trainers, David Gandolfo and Toby Balding. That really did mean a lot.

Find out my three best chances this weekend here.

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Find out what Kauto Star was up to this week and win a piece of Betfair Chase history.

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1. kieran | 26 November 2011

   love reading this colum gives the punter a wee bit of a chance

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