Handicappers' Corner: Timeform reveal Grand National ratings

Grand National Betting / Timeform / 14 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Timeform have revealed their ratings for the 2012 Grand National

"it is Prince de Beauchene who interests us most. He caught the eye when a never-nearer fifth in the Troytown Chase at Navan in autumn and has presumably kept his powder dry since to preserve his handicap mark until the weights were announced..."

Once-a-year punters often dismiss the Grand National as a "lottery", yet that description is increasingly inaccurate if judged on recent evidence argues jumps handicapper Phil Turner...

Indeed, victory regularly goes to one of the best-handicapped runners in the field nowadays, with no less than five of the last sixteen National winners having been sent off favourite - the average SP during this period is just 14/1 if you ignore Mon Mome's 100/1 success in 2009 (his Betfair SP was [143.59], incidentally!).

The fact there have been only five 100/1 winners in the National's long history also goes some way to dispelling the "lottery" theory. Admittedly two of that quintet were genuine no-hopers who owed their wins to freakish races in 1928 (Tipperary Tim beat only other finisher Billy Barton after a pile-up at the first Canal Turn) and 1967 (Foinavon won after being the only horse to avoid a melee at the twenty-third), yet the other surprise winners could be easily explained from a handicapping viewpoint.

Mon Mome, for example, had a better than average chance at the weights if judged on the form of his win in a valuable Cheltenham handicap merely four months earlier, yet he was shunned by punters having flopped on all four starts in between (including when a short-priced favourite for the Welsh National on the first occasion).

Given that backdrop, supporters of Mon Mome won't have been unnecessarily put off by his flop at Haydock last time (when pulled up as if possibly amiss), particularly as he'd shaped as if retaining much of his ability when runner-up at Cheltenham the time before. In addition, his current BHA mark of 145 is 3 lb lower than he carried to victory in 2009, though it's worth bearing in mind there was uncharacteristic dip in pace that year due to the two leaders departing at second Becher's and the twelve-year-old's tendency to hit a flat spot mid-race could prove costly in this renewal (as it did prior to his fall five out in 2010).

In addition to Mon Mome, there are seven other horses entered with previous wins to their name over the famous Aintree fences, notably the Donald McCain-trained 2011 National hero Ballabriggs, who's likely to be the most high-profile runner this time around due to the recent death of McCain's father Ginger, the trainer of three-times winner Red Rum and 2004 hero Amberleigh House. History, of course, is rather stacked against Ballabriggs, as you have to go back thirty-eight years to find the last back-to-back National winner, namely the aforementioned Red Rum. In addition, Reynoldstown (1935 and 1936) was the only other dual National winner of the 20th Century.

That said, the likes of Monty's Pass (fourth in 2004), Hedgehunter (runner-up in 2006), Comply Or Die (runner-up in 2009) and Don't Push It (third in 2011) have all been placed under big weights twelve months after their National triumphs recently, so it'd unwise to rule out Ballabriggs on history alone. However, BHA handicapper Phil Smith hasn't done him any favours in relation to the others towards the top of the 2012 National weights - for example, Ballabriggs would receive 7 lb from top weight Synchronised (who probably doesn't jump well enough for Aintree) in a handicap chase over conventional fences, yet the difference will be just 1 lb should they both turn up on April 14th!

This anomaly is due to Smith's policy to treat top-class chasers leniently in the Grand National handicap in an effort to encourage their participation in the race and, ironically, it has worked in the favour of one of McCain's other possible runners, Weird Al. A strong case can certainly be made for Weird Al from a handicapping viewpoint, particularly as he's shown much improved form since joining the yard from Ian Williams this term, notably when finishing a fine third to Kauto Star and Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Ante-post punters should be warned, however, that this lightly-raced nine-year-old seems more likely to be aimed at the Cheltenham Gold Cup instead at present. McCain's third representative Wymott, meanwhile, hardly looks to have the ideal attitude for the demands of Aintree if recent evidence is anything to go by.

There are no such attitude fears with Niche Market, who has run two honourable races in defeat over these fences during the past twelve months, namely when fifth behind Ballabriggs in the 2011 National and then runner-up to West End Rocker in the Becher Chase in early-December. Although without a win since 2009 Irish National, Niche Market is finally starting to creep back down the weights and has decent claims of reversing those placings, particularly if ground conditions are on the dry side. Niche Market is one of only two entries from champion trainer Paul Nicholls, whose other possible representative Neptune Collonges is still capable of high-class form but doesn't seem so consistent as was once the case.

By contrast, Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins seems set to be mob-handed given that he's responsible for twelve of the eighty-two entries, with Ruby Walsh likely to side with Mullins instead of Nicholls for the sixth time in eight years. In truth, there are stamina doubts about of plenty of this dozen and the ones who make the most appeal at present are The Midnight Club, On His Own and, in particular, Prince de Beauchene.

The Midnight Club was Walsh's choice in 2011 and the pair did quite well to finish sixth after a troubled passage, certainly showing enough to suggest another tilt at the race was warranted. The eleven-year-old hasn't been disgraced over inadequate trips this winter but, even so, the two Graham Wylie-owned geldings also mentioned seem higher in his yard's pecking order at present. On His Own and Prince de Beauchene joined Mullins from Howard Johnson in the summer and have both made a satisfactory start for their new yard. Although On His Own has been the more successful so far thanks to his recent wide-margin win in the Thyestes Chase, his jumping hasn't always looked tailor-made for Aintree and it is Prince de Beauchene who interests us most. He caught the eye when a never-nearer fifth in the Troytown Chase at Navan in autumn and has presumably kept his powder dry since to preserve his handicap mark until the weights were announced - he's potentially well handicapped on the pick of his 2010/11 form for Johnson and looks just the type who'll take well to the National fences.

The "Aintree factor" is certainly something to consider when having a bet in the National and, given that most people usually have more than one selection, it's probably prudent to choose at least one with previous experience of the course - for example, nine of the fourteen finishers in the 2010 renewal had all completed the course at least once previously. As a result, West End Rocker is likely to be a popular choice following his wide-margin win in the Becher Chase, particularly as it has been announced that Wayne Hutchinson is set to retain the mount (four wins from five rides on the gelding). That gruelling contest on rain-softened ground is likely to bear little relation to the test usually served up at Aintree in sunny April, though, whilst West End Rocker has nothing in hand of the handicapper following that exaggerated winning margin of twenty-two lengths (stable-companion Hold On Julio has a better chance on Timeform ratings).

Shakalakaboomboom also took well to the National fences when tackling last season's Topham Chase as a novice and he hasn't looked back since then, winning at Cheltenham in December prior to finishing a game second to Calgary Bay (fourth-fence faller in 2011 National) in a valuable contest at Doncaster next time. Both seem a shade high in the weights now as a result of that, however.

The latter sentiment also applies to ante-post favourite Junior, who hasn't been seen over jumps since running out a twenty-four length winner of last season's Kim Muir at Cheltenham. The 2012 National has clearly been the target ever since then but, although he's looked a reformed character since joining David Pipe, the hints of temperament he showed earlier in his career suggests he's not 100% certain to take to the course.

State of Play, of course, is a seasoned veteran around Aintree having made the frame in each of the last three renewals of the National. He's clearly worthy of respect on that score but, if anything, Evan Williams looks to have stronger claims with the younger pair Deep Purple and, in particular, Cappa Bleu. The last-named gelding hasn't stood much racing in recent years but seems better than ever at present and could well be trading at much shorter odds if figuring prominently in one of his intended engagements this weekend.

TIMEFORM WEIGHT-ADJUSTED RATINGS
Weird Al 184
Prince de Beauchene 179
Niche Market 178
Burton Port 177
Synchronised 177
Hold On Julio 176p
Giles Cross 176
Midnight Haze 176
Neptune Collonges 176
Treacle 176
Viking Blond 176
Quel Esprit 175+
Cappa Bleu 175+
Chicago Grey 175
Killyglen 175
Le Beau Bai 175
Midnight Chase 175
Planet of Sound 175
Quiscover Fontaine 175
Swing Bill 175

Some other ratings of potential note.
Roulez Cool 174
The Midnight Club 174
Calgary Bay 172
Organisedconfusion 172
Ballabriggs 171
Junior 171
West End Rocker 171
Shakalakaboomboom 170
Tatenen 169
On His Own 168+