Guineas / Geoffrey Riddle / 30 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Riddler's back with his first live blog of the Flat season. He'll be sharing his thoughts and providing all the latest trackside talk, including market moves and race results, as the mighty Frankel bids for 2,000 Guineas glory. Email him at: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter: @louchepunter.

5.35pm:
As Jerry Springer might say, here's a final thought.

Last season Frankel was made joint-champion two-year old with Dream Ahead with an official rating of 126. It is probably fair to say that as a three-year-old, and in his first Classic, to win by six lengths is probably a career best. Only Tudor Minstrel has extended a field by further since 1900, which means we have a serious racehorse on our hands, not just visually, but ratings-wise, too.

"Frankel's performance can only be described as awesome," said Dominic Gardiner-Hill, the official BHA handicapper for milers. "I don't think I have ever seen a Guineas performance like that and I am not entirely sure I have ever seen a performance like that. Frankel has got a figure of 126 from his juvenile days and it would be rather churlish to say he hasn't run his best ever race so he has to be higher."

Sea The Stars went to Epsom with a rating of 121, so what exactly have we got here?

Well, as ever, Timeform, were quick out of the blocks and they believe that Frankel's performance was better than Sea The Stars, Dancing Brave and Dubai Millennium. to read the views of their racecourse reporter, Jamie Lynch, click here

Have a good night all, and see you back here at 11am tomorrow.

5.25pm result:
1: Bahceli
2: Sikeeb
3: Zain Shamardal

5.22pm:
The plaudits for Frankel keep on pouring in. Lester Piggott, who rode the likes of Rodrigo de Triano (1992), Shaheed (1985), and of course Nijinski (1970) to victory in the 2,000 Guineas reckons that Frankel is the best he's seen.
"It would have been great to be aboard that," said the Long Fellow wistfully. "I reckon he's the best I've seen. He's right up there."

5.20pm:
Ocean War was not cut by many firms for the Derby after his win in the 4,55pm, but trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni reckoned that his gallant grey may well go straight to Epsom.

"He could be a Derby horse and although there are many trial options for him I do not want to run him too soon," said Mahmood Al Zarooni. "He was very green today, which is strange because he wasn't last time out. As for Casamento, he will run again before Epsom. The way they raced Frankel today was so different it confused all the jockeys. In the circumstances I was happy with Casamento's run."

4.55pm result:
1: Ocean War
2: Cai Shen

4.25pm:
Only one favourite has won the 4.55pm in the past ten years, and some of those sent off as the punter's pal went on to greater things despite their defeat.

Wigmore Hall was chinned in this last year at 4-6 and look where he ended up. Other class horses to be beaten in this were Eastern Anthem, who in 2009 won the $2m Dubai Sheema Classic and Purple Moon who finished second in the 2007 Melbourne Cup.
Cai Shen and Ocean War look by far the best of these, so with Cai Shen the second favourite the mount of Richard Hughes looks a solid selection.

Ocean War should also be considered, especially as Mickael Barzalona has a sublime record in this country this season with four wins from five rides.

4.20pm result:
1: Seal Rock
2: Coeus
3: Remotelinx

3.50pm:
Ed Dunlop cannot believe it. He saddled Native Khan to the colt's best performance of his life and he was "blitzed" by Frankel.

The racecourse here is abuzz with the audacity of Henry Cecil and Tom Queally's plan to drive Frankel to the front, a place he never relinquished.

"For Henry and Tom to ride him like that, to have the balls to ride him like that was completely astounding," said a flabbergasted Dunlop. "Mentally my horse had improved and he has behaved very well and yet he was totally blitzed. We were all blitzed. There was really only one horse ever in it."

"My horse will stay, I don't know whether Frankel will, but we're going for a French or English Derby."

3.45pm - Palace House Stakes result:
1: Tangerine Trees
2: Rain Delayed
3: Jonny Mudball, Sole Power

3.35pm:
It's Dandy Nicholls' birthday today. He has entered just one horse in the Palace House Stakes, when he presumably could have been mob handed. Is it a sign? It's not as if Evens and Odds is a no-hoper.

3.10pm - 2,000 Guineas result:
1: Frankel
2: Dubawi Gold
3: Native Khan
Frankel led from pillar to post in one of the most astounding performances seen on a racetrack.

The gates opened, and for a brief moment Frankel vied with Rerouted for the lead before he took charge under Tom Queally.

From there, there was no point in trading in-running and at the three-furlong pole Queally took a sneaky peek through his legs only to see the field six lengths back.

It was the most facile victory and one which give Henry Cecil his 25th Classic success and Queally his first.

Henry Cecil has intimated that Frankel will go to York for the Dante before deciding about whether Frankel goes for the Derby, for which he trades at around 2-1 to 9-4 with the high street bookmakers.

Cecil has mentioned on a number of occasions that Frankel might contest the St James's Palace Stakes, which suggests that in the back of the great man's mind he must be leaning towards donning his top hat and tails for Royal Ascot.

3.02pm:
It has just been announced that Frankel will be the last to leave the parade ring with permission from the Stewards. Not a good sign for the increasingly warm favourite.

3pm:
Michael Tumilty has just tweeted me to say that he reckons Frankel is the best bet of the year. I thoroughly disagree.

It is impossible to suggest that Henry Cecil's charge is not the best horse in the race, and by some way, but you've only got to look at the hotpots that have been beaten in this race down the years to know that he is probably not SO much better than his rivals.

Pathfork is unbeaten, impeccably bred and won the National Stakes which Tap On Wood, El Gran Senor, King Of Kings, Refuse To Bend and George Washington all won en route to success in the first British Classic of the season.

According to several ratings systems, Pathfork's win at the Curragh was better than any of King Of Kings, Refuse To Bend and George Washington and Jessica Harrington's raider looks decent value at odds-against to be in the first three.

Having been to the paddock, the likes of Happy Today, Rerouted and Slim Shadey all looked a picture and in rude health. Can they follow in the footsteps of all the outsiders that I outlined earlier this morning?

2.35pm:
I've just returned from the pre-parade ring where Frankel looked to be getting a little warm, but no more than when he won the Greenham at Newbury.

Clear pick of the paddock were the Godolphin pair, Saamidd and Casamento, with the latter looking bigger, stronger and deeper than all the others. I'll be amazed if he doesn't pick up a decent middle-distance prize this season.

Earlier in the season Casamento was being aimed at the Dante Stakes at York on May 12, but after Dubai Prince, his stablemate and half-brother was found to be injured, he was drafted in to duty.

The green light for Casamento to run, however, was only given on Wednesday and there is a strong suspicion that Godolphin only took the decision because trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni is in such flying form.

"We feel that when he gets over a mile and a half that will be his best trip," Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager said. "We think he has a great chance in the Derby. He has enough pace for a mile though, and has plenty of speed. Mahmood's stable is in cracking good form and sometimes you have to go when everything is in good order."

Al Zarooni has sent out six winners from 20 runners since his string touched down in Newmarket from Dubai earlier this month and with a sublime record here on the Rowley Mile, he could run a huge Derby trial here this afternoon. He trades at [10.0] in the Derby market on Betfair.

2.30pm result - Jockey Club Stakes:
1: Dandino
2: Native Ruler

2.25pm
The PA's racing reporter, Tom Peacock, is in the stall beside me in the press room. He's just been down to the winners' enclosure to collar Willie Haggas, trainer of Fury in the 2,000 Guineas.

Haggas reported that Fury was meant to have a prep run before today's assignment, but after suffering a setback missed his intended engagement in the Free Handicap.
"He certainly was not upbeat about Fury's chances, put it that way," reported Peacock.

2pm result:
1: Green Destiny
2: Proponent
3: Breakheart
4: Kay Gee Be
Despite being a marked drifter pre-race Green Destiny hacked up in the opener here for Willie Haggas. The field split with Beaumont's Party, Tartan Gigha and Colour Scheme, who were drawm 17, 18 and 19, all gravitating towards the stands' rail while the rest of the field remained centre track.

May old mate Kay Gee Be did indeed lead, but only traded at as short at [5.4] but plugged on to reward backers in the place market.

1.50pm
One of the other reasons for laying Kay Gee Be in-running is that there is a decent headwind here this afternoon. If Kay Gee Be does indeed have an uncontested lead he may well find it tought to hold on.

Of the closers Proponent has been heavily backed, so much so that the mount of Frankie Dettori is now the [7.8] favourite, and the fast-finishing Sandor also looks of significant interest.

If Joe Fanning can get cover, however, there is no reason why Tartan Gigha cannot follow up last season's victory. Mark Johnston's tough handicapper is just a 1lb higher than last year, and 5lbs higher than when second in the Cambridgeshire. The [20.0] looks a big price.

1.35pm:
Getting off the subject of the 2,000 Guineas for the first time, Kay Gee Be looks an ideal back-to-lay vehicle in the opening race at 2pm trading at [9.6].

Richard Fahey's stable is fine fettle, with 12 winners from 47 runners during the past fortnight. In a race where 19 go to post a confirmed front-runner is difficult to find.

Only Kay Gee Be has the necessary credentials, although the likes of Colour Scheme, Vainglory and Tartan Gigha, last year's winner, are all likely to be pressing.

Kay Gee Be looked extremely fit when winning at Windsor the other day, and last year when he had his own way up front but didn't win he traded at [5.0] and [2.1] in-running.

1.20pm:
Henry Cecil is convinced that Frankel is miles better than he was at Newbury when he won the Greenham.

The ten-times champion trainer believed Frankel to be 80 per cent fit when he won at the Berkshire track earlier this month and after the colt's final piece of work on Tuesday he is sure he will be in perfect condition for his tilt at history this afternoon.

"I'll be very surprised if he is not a better horse now than he was at Newbury," said Cecil. "I think a race brings them on and is probably worth two or three bits of work at home. I admire people who produce horses at Newmarket on Guineas day first time out and win. I don't think I could do it."

There have been many who crabbed Frankel's performance in the Greenham, suggesting that he did not settle well, but Cecil was quick to rubbish those claims.

"People criticised the way he won - they said he got upset, which he didn't - he behaved very well for a fresh horse first time out.
"Dan and Shane, who have ridden him in all his exercise, tell me he has grown up a lot. He is precocious colt, and you could set him alight but we've just got to keep him switched off.
"He's very relaxed and is getting good in his cantering; obviously when the blood gets going he can be fiery. He's got an extraordinarily long stride - he doesn't put his hind legs that far underneath him. He covers a lot of ground with his front legs."

As suggested by Nick Mordin, Frankel has benefitted by a slow pace that converted into a sprint but Cecil believes that his stable star can force the pace if Rerouted does a poor job of pacemaking as Picture Editor did at Newbury.

"I want a decent pace, but if I don't get it I'm quite happy to do it myself. Hopefully he won't have to but he could do it," he added.

12.55pm:
There is an interesting debate in the Racing Post today between James Knight, an odds complier for Coral and Nick Mordin, the systems guru.

Mordin comes up with the astonishing statistic that around 120 horses have contested the 2,000 Guineas after running over a mile more than once and they all lost.

Clearly Frankel is a cut above the majority of those 120 horses, perhaps better than them all, but it does serve up notice that there are reasons to oppose the red-hot favourite.

Mordin also goes on to highlight that Frankel's victories have occurred due to a slow early pace and then a sprint finish, which the finishing times suggest was the case at Newbury in the Greenham.

As an illustration of how slowly run Frankel's Greenham was, if you look at Dick Turpin's effort last year Richard Hannon's colt won the race on good ground in 1m 22.72s. Frankel took 1m 24.60s, on much better ground.

No horse has gone on to win the 2,000 Guineas having won the Greenham since Wollow, trained by Cecil himself in 1976. It brings in to focus that Cecil has no won the race for 35 years., having sent out 19 losers. Food for thought.

12.45pm:
The other major move in the 2,000 Guineas market is Saamidd, the Godolphin colt.

The Darley bred son of Street Cry has moved from [55.0] into [36.0], and for no small money either; £21k.

Saamidd looked a colt of the highest potential when winning the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last season.

So impressed were Godolphin that they stumped up £20,000 in order to supplement Saamidd to the Dewhurst Stakes in the belief that he could serve it up to Frankel.

Saamidd showed reluctance to enter the stalls that day and in finishing last, 17 lengths adrift of Frankel, he put in a performance so mystifying that even Hercule Poirot could
not get to the bottom of it.

"We did all of the tests," said Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager. "Nothing ever came to light. The colt had a difficult disposition on the day and we still don't know why. His attitude seemed to change, he didn't like the soft ground very much, and even going down to the start he was different. He bumped Frankel and he didn't run any type of race."

His breeding suggests that a mile on good to firm is his optimum conditions and with confidence in the colt clearly displayed in the betting markets he might be worth a look at [6.0] in the place market.

12.40pm:
The betting markets always make for decent reading and I quite fancied the chances of Roderic O'Connor in today's big race before I glanced at the prices of the challengers to Frankel.

All five of Aidan O'Brien's 2,000 Guineas heroes came to Newmarket without a prep race, so quite why he is a double-figure price was beyond me.

Although Frankel beat him fair and square in the Dewhurst, the Irish raider had only seen action twice in maidens and did not look as ready for battle as Frankel, who had demolished the Royal Lodge field by ten lengths on his third start.

Roderic O'Connor used that experience to win the Group 1 Criterium International over a mile in heavy ground and although the race has not worked out he clearly advertised his ability.

The problem is that not only is his price on Betfair higher than it is with the high street layers, but he is on the drift, too.

He's out to [14.0] from [11.0].

12.30pm:
Frankel's price remains steady at [1.6] with just over £1m traded on Henry Cecil's hotpot.
Graham Cunningham, the RUK and Betting.betfair analyst, reckons the favourite should be nearer [1.4], but also thinks there is a good angle to lay in the place market. Read his thoughts here:

High noon:
Frankel's domination of the betting landscape has polarised virtually the entire racing community. There is no place here for the timid types here who think, "ooh, I'm not so sure." As far as I'm concerned, you are either with him or against him.

For those who are searching for an alternative to the next big hope (NBH) you can take solace in the fact that the 2,000 Guineas provides a rich seam for long-priced gold diggers.

In the last eight years four runners priced at 33-1 have made the frame, as have 100-1 shots Norse Dancer, Kandidate, Rebel Rebel and Stubbs Art, while Dick Turpin (16-1) and Canford Cliffs (12-1) filled the podium behind shock winner Makfi, who was matched at [95.0] last season for £66 in running.

What's more, six of the last 11 favourites have failed to make the frame and Zafonic was the last odd-on shot to win back in 1993, which means fans of Frankel are going to have an iron constitution today.

11.30am:
The 2,000 Guineas has been staged at Newmarket 202 times, and there can scarcely have been better days for the Suffolk track to host the first British Classic of the season.

The sun is high in a blue sky and we have the hottest favourite in 40 years hogging the limelight. Frankel, the joint-champion European juvenile, bids to become the first odds-on winner of the 2,000 Guineas this afternoon since Zafonic beat 13 others on the Rowley Mile in 1993.

Henry Cecil's potential wonder horse trades at [1.59] on Betfair right now and such is the confidence behind the Dewhurst winner that he trades at [1.19] for a place.

Frankel proved in the Greenham at Newbury earlier this month that he can handle lightening quick going and the lush Newmarket turf here today has firmed up since yesterday.

Racing takes place on that stands' side course today, which means that virgin ground that has not be raced upon since October is going to be used. It's anyone's guess how that will ride.

"As of 10am this morning the ground is good to firm, good in places with a GoingStick reading of 8.8 compared to 8.6 yesterday at 3pm," said Michael Prosser, clerk of the course.

"There is plenty of moisture through the profile of the soil and we have good grass cover."

With good grass cover and moisture in the soil, do you think David Simcock regrets not running Dream Ahead, who was rated Frankel's equal last season, in today's big race?

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