Cheltenham Gold Cup / David Cleary / 11 January 2012 / 1

The market, press and most racing fans are fixated by a third clash of the season between old stager Kauto Star and reigning Gold Cup champion Long Run, but wise ante-post punters will look further away from the headline-hogging duo, says David Cleary

'Kauto Star against Long Run - the decider'.

That may well be how the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup is billed in the run-up to the big day, with press coverage focused almost exclusively on the pair.

Long Run beat Kauto Star twice last season but the old champ has picked himself up off the canvas to win the Betfair Chase and King George (for a record fifth time) this winter. The duo dominate the ante-post market and that one or other of them wins in March is much the most likely outcome. It is arguable that Kauto Star, gloriously in the ascendant this season, ought to be favourite, but there's not much in it and his current price of [5.2] is only marginally longer than it should be.

Kauto Star, his credentials hard to fault, will wait to take on all comers in March. Long Run, in search of a boost, is likely to run in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury in February. A defeat would surely see him deposed as favourite. Such an outcome is unlikely, though the Denman could become a serious trial if he is opposed by Grands Crus and/or Captain Chris, two of the next three in the Gold Cup market.

The exciting novice Grands Crus will make a top-class chaser in time but it's easy to underestimate the gap between top novice and championship races in open company; in any case he makes little appeal ante-post, as his Cheltenham target won't be decided until his trial, either at Newbury or in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January.

The ultimate target of the Arkle winner Captain Chris is even more uncertain and, in any case, he has 17 lengths to make up on Long Run from the King George and has yet to prove he's made the jump to this level. With stamina an unknown as well, the Ryanair Chase seems a more plausible Cheltenham target for Captain Chris.

The Lexus Chase effectively binned the claims of the main Irish-trained candidates. Rubi Light didn't have enough stamina or Quito de La Roque enough class to defeat Synchronised, previously seen as a good soft-ground plodder. Synchronised now finds himself fourth favourite for the Gold Cup, but the Lexus was run in a poor time, he seems more ground dependant than most and has never run over fences at Cheltenham.

The pecking order among that trio may change as a result of the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown in February but it's unlikely any will show to enough advantage for a plausible winner of the Gold Cup to emerge. It is just possible that the RSA Chase winner and runner-up Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream could yet break through, though the former has plenty to prove after two runs this season, while Jessies Dream hasn't been seen yet this season due to a setback.

The Betfair Chase may yet prove the key race. Then Kauto Star beat Long Run by eight lengths, a margin reduced to a length-and-a-quarter in the King George, though in the last mile at Kempton, Long Run never really looked likely to win unless Kauto Star faltered. The third at Haydock Weird Al was only two lengths behind Long Run, form that stands up well against most of the other pretenders to the crown.

Weird Al had the benefit of a run, an impressive win in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, though as his record is one suggesting he's best fresh he may not have been at quite the advantage it seemed. He's a sound jumper who should be suited by the test the Gold Cup provides and he has clearly improved since joining Donald McCain. Connections wisely resisted the temptation to go for the King George and Weird Al will go to the Gold Cup a fresh horse.

Diamond Harry clearly needed the run when fourth at Haydock and travelled as well as Long Run to after three out. However, he missed the King George due to lameness, his overall record of fragility more of a worry than it is with Weird Al. Last season's leading novice Time For Rupert was fifth at Haydock, beaten by Weird Al for the second time this season. Cheltenham might suit him better than either Wetherby or Haydock but he has plenty to prove.

The 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup provided a lesson in reducing the race to a match, with Imperial Commander spoiling the Kauto Star/Denman party. Of the candidates to take third, Weird Al, at [32.0] to back, looks the best option to unseat the favourites this time round.

Key Dates
Argento Chase, Cheltenham January 28
Betfair Denman Chase, Newbury, February 11
Hennessy Gold Cup, Leopardstown, February 12
Next declaration stage, February 14

Click here to listen to David's Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview Podcast

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1. Dave Hollingdale | 13 January 2012

   Reading all the informed comment I find it incredible no mention has been made of "What A Friend" he is having a quiet season but I understand Paul Nicholls is hoping for a grade one prize for this horse. Ran I thought a magnificent race last year and will inprove. Darryl Jacob gets on well with the horse who can be a difficult ride, but his jumping is sound and he will stay.

   Anyway I have had 1500 pounds to 10 and that is excellent value in my book.

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