Champion Hurdle: A cautionary tale for Hurricane Fly's supporters

Champion Hurdle / Simon Rowlands / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hurricane Fly winning at Leopardstown.

"Hurricane Fly is no Istabraq (yet), he missed the 2009 and 2010 Festivals through training problems, and he has managed just four runs per season before this one, in which he has managed just two..."

Cheltenham Festivals come and go, but the more things change the more one essential truth remains the same: there is no such thing as a certainty! Head of Research and Development Simon Rowlands explains...

Over the next few weeks I hope to blog about some of the ante-post betting opportunities for the Cheltenham Festival, which starts on March 13 and for which numerous markets are already active.

But first, a cautionary tale. It involves a callow 18-year-old (me) catching the bus in 1982 to the Cheltenham Festival in the belief that his ante-post bet on Angelo Salvini in the Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle simply could not lose.

The horse in question was a multiple winner on the Flat and over hurdles, and he had won his final trial for Cheltenham by 25 lengths and more from good rivals in Baron Palles and Spider's Well. What could possibly stop him?

Well, I still don't know what it was that stopped him, but, in the event, Angelo Salvini - a 13/8 shot in a field of 21 - finished only tenth, while Baron Palles finished fifth and Spider's Well came second. The 18-year-old got back on the bus, poorer if somewhat the wiser.

The moral? There is no such thing as certainty in a risky environment - a lesson the world's bankers could have done with learning much sooner - and that applies very clearly where the Cheltenham Festival is concerned.

Much water has flowed under many bridges since that day, but the lesson remains a pertinent one. There have been 14 odds-on chances at Cheltenham Festivals in the 21st Century - each of those horses even more of a "certainty" than was Angelo Salvini - and only six of them have won.

There were four such "good things" in 2010 alone. Big Buck's obliged, but Dunguib, Master Minded and Kauto Star all failed.

The fate of those horses matters not a jot so far as this year's runners are concerned in some respects. But, in others, they are an important reminder that things do not always work out anything like as expected.

This year, with several weeks still to go until the races are run, there are two horses at odds on in Betfair's markets: Big Buck's at [1.63] for the World Hurdle and Hurricane Fly at [1.98] for the Champion Hurdle.

More of Big Buck's another day, Hurricane Fly is the one I am interested in here. The Willie Mullins-trained gelding is a superb hurdler, arguably the best two-miler of the post-Istabraq era and a cosy winner 12 months ago.

He could not have been much more impressive than when trouncing Oscars Well in the Irish Champion Hurdle last weekend, though that is the honest and smart Oscars Well and not to be confused with anything that should really trouble a top-notch two-mile hurdler.

Arguably the best of Hurricane Fly's potential rivals will be sidestepping the Champion. Peddlers Cross has gone chasing, while Oscar Whisky - a superior type of Oscar - has, somewhat puzzlingly, long since been committed to taking on Big Buck's at longer distances.

That, as much as his undoubted ability, is why Hurricane Fly is the skinny price he is now.

But look at things another way. Hurricane Fly is no Istabraq (yet), he missed the 2009 and 2010 Festivals through training problems, and he has managed just four runs per season before this one, in which he has managed just two.

Hurricane Fly is the likeliest winner of the Champion Hurdle - there is little dispute about that - but there are still six weeks to go until he is due to defend his title, and things can still "go Angelo Salvini" (i.e. wrong) even if he does.

It would also be a mistake to underestimate some of his remaining rivals. In particular, I do not think we have yet seen the best of Rock On Ruby, who was rapidly on the up before just outpaced by former Champion Binocular at Kempton over Christmas. Cheltenham is likely to suit him better and could suit him much better if conditions are testing.

So, my advice is "be brave and lay Hurricane Fly as things stand", while the [19.0] about Rock On Ruby also makes appeal. If it all goes horribly wrong, you can always catch the bus home.

Recommendations
Win lay HURRICANE FLY to lose 3 pts at [2.0]; win back ROCK ON RUBY 1 pt at [19.0].