The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 24 May 2011 /

It's a tough puzzle at Wentworth but with a plethora of picks Steve's certainly had a go at finding the winner, whilst in the States our man's extremely bullish about Dustin...

The Race to Dubai pitches up in England this week for it's one and only non-major event of the year. Other than the Open Championship at Sandwich in July, this is it, England's only event. Poor do really don't you think?

Anyway, at least it's a good one, in fact, it's a cracker. So much so that Lee Westwood has claimed that the BMW PGA Championship is THE 5th major. After the furore in the States over his non-attendance at The Players recently, almost universally regarded as the 5th major (not that such a thing actually exists!), you have to wonder how much his comments were tongue-in-cheek but nevertheless, it's a very good event, with a great field, but it's far from an easy puzzle to solve, as Paul Krishnamurty points out in his Wentworth punting clue's piece.

My only pre-event success since Colin Montgomerie won in 2000 was Paul Casey two years ago and maybe that's one of the reason I've gotten him onside again. There's little doubting that his form isn't brilliant at present but with such an impressive bank of Wentworth form he'd have been an awful lot shorter than he is if he were. Ian Poulter showed last week how when conditions suit a player can suddenly find an upturn in form and I'm hoping Casey will find a spark this week.

Ross Fisher will win this event one day; he grew up at Wentworth and knows every blade of grass. Whether it's to be this year is questionable given he too hasn't been at his best recently but I make the exact same argument as I do with Casey. I managed to get a little matched at [44.0] on Monday and that was a great price.

In great form all year, it was no surprise to see Thomas Aiken finally secure his first European Tour win at the Open de España early this month. His top-ten just a week later at the Iberdrola Open was almost as impressive given he was sure to have celebrated breaking his duck and he could just be about to break through to the next level. His ability has never been in any doubt but his wobbly in-contention game has held him back for years. Now he's crossed the line once it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do it again soon and he's already shown an aptitude for Wentworth having finished 17th last year and 10th on debut a year earlier.

Belgium's Nicolas Colsaerts did me a big favour last week when he managed to get to the last four at the Volvo World Match Play. Like Aiken, he could well be ready to win again, having won the China Open last month and he too has a bit of Wentworth form. He made his debut here as long ago as 2004, when he opened up with a first round 67 to sit in 7th place. He drifted away tamely after that and did the same thing last year - shooting a first round 68. He's a wholly different player now though and for the second week running I've taken [80.0] about him.

Next up is yet another recent winner in Darren Clarke. Dazzler was helped greatly by the collapse of Chris Wood at the Iberdrola Open two weeks ago but it's bound to give him confidence going forward and he has a fantastic set of form figures at Wentworth - if you go back far enough!

Seung-Yul Noh is a monstrous talent that might just be coming out of a poor spell. He played much better last week than he has in some time. He also fared quite well on his debut here last year and he looked fractionally too big to me at [140.0]

David Horsey is yet another pick to have already won this year. The Trophee Hassan II winner also won last year, at the prestigious BMW International Open, and he was 5th last time out at the China Open. I agree with Paul, [210.0] is indeed a crazy price.

And last up, a really crazy one! David Howell was arguably the most impressive winner of this event in recent years back in 2006 and wouldn't it be great to see such a great character back as a force in the game? He's not the player of old by a long chalk but he did manage back-to-back 65's at the recent Open de Andalucía and he did manage a 5th placed finish in Qatar in February. Maybe, just maybe...

Selections:

Paul Casey @ [34.0]
Ross Fisher @ [42.0]
Thomas Aiken @ [60.0]
Nicolas Colsaerts @ [80.0]
Darren Clarke @ [100.0]
Seung-Yul Noh @ [140.0]
David Horsey @ [230.0]
David Howell @ [570.0]

Just two picks in the States and the first one is one I'm extremely hopeful of. I backed Dustin Johnson in this event two years ago, in the days when he used to be a value price, at [95.0]. I very rarely back him these days as I often think he's way too short given he's always capable of losing the plot, as he did here two Years ago!

On that occasion he hit a low of just [2.5] after playing the first eight holes of round three in six under par. He'd gone clear of the field and looked a good thing but then found water three times! He never really recovered and went on to finish 4th.

He was a pick last year but he never got going at all but still finished 7th. If he turns up in good form this week he'll take an awful lot of beating and he's a very, very confident selection.

I was going to leave it at that but I felt I just couldn't leave out Marc Leishman. The Aussie's still looking for his first PGA Tour success but when it comes I'm pretty sure it will be in Texas. In his two visits here he's finished 8th and 12th and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the mix again this year.

Selections:

Dustin Johnson @ [17.0]
Marc Leishman @ [70.0]

I'll be back on Friday morning with the Live Golf Blog.

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