The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 29 November 2011 /

Tiger Woods is in action in the States, the world's top-two appear in South Africa, and Rory McIlroy's the favourite to win in Hong Kong. A quiet week then! Read Steve's thoughts on all the action here...

With so much going on again this week it's a job to know where to start, so I'm trying to apply some sort of logic by previewing the events in time order, starting with the Race to Dubai event, the UBS Hong Kong Open, which kicks off on Wednesday evening, UK time, at 23.00.

Rory McIlroy heads the market, at what looks a far too short [5.8], and the European Tour's organisers will be shouting him on even more than his hoards of backers. Rory's the only man that can feasibly catch Luke Donald on the Race to Dubai but he has to win here to stand any chance. Should he fail, next week's season ending Dubai World Championship will be something of a damp squib.

Good friends and World Cup partners, Justin Rose and Ian Poulter (defending champ) are second and third best but they too look plenty short enough to me, and as a result, plenty of players further down the list have caught my eye, starting with Miguel Angel Jimenez...

The veteran Spaniard is bidding to win the event for the third time in eight years and given he seems to have finally sorted his season long putting woes he was a no-brainer selection at [36.0].

I wasn't fast enough to grab the [70.0] about Thongchai Jaidee but I'm more than happy with [55.0]. The Thai veteran's career is most definitely in the twilight stage now and he's had a disappointing season but he hasn't finished outside the top-20 here since 2004. He was third in 2006 and second a year later so it's a title he perhaps should have won by now. He's shown quite an upturn in form of late so maybe this is the year he does.

I have vivid memories of last year's event and my next selection in particular. I really fancied Richie Ramsay to take to Fanling, venue again for the 53rd successive year, on what was his debut and I recall waking in the middle of the night and seeing that he was leading early on (he birdied four of his first five holes and shot 30 on the front nine) but it all went a bit pear-shaped after that. To cut a long story short, I ended up in hospital that night, thanks to a heart attack some days previous, and Ramsay lost the plot and missed the cut!

I hope I'm not tempting any sort of fate because I've backed him again, and for the very same reasons. This short and tricky tree-lined track looks exactly the sort of place the Scot could prosper and given how well he's played this year, at [60.0] he looked a great bet.

I couldn't neglect James Morrison, who I've backed repeatedly of late and who is still in fine form. After that it's a pair of rags with course form.

I'm in full agreement, yet again, with Paul Krishnamurty about the chances of his Find Me A 100 Winner pick, Jose Manuel Lara and I quite like the chances of Robert Jan-Derksen. The Dutchmen finished third here two years ago and he turns up fresh off a great performance at last week's World Cup, where he and Joost Luiten finished in a tie for fourth.

Selections
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [36.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [55.0]
Richie Ramsay @ [60.0]
Jose Manuel Lara @ [130.0]
Robert Jan Derksen @ [150.0]

The next event to kick off will be the Nedbank Challenge, where I found selections very easy to find. Its 24 years since a debutant won at Sun City and after backing first-timers, who clearly looked lost at times, over the past couple of years, I've finally learnt my lesson.

Eliminating Sun City virgins immediately halves the field, leaving the world's one and two, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, homeboy Charl Schwartzel, Robert Karlsson, Anders Hansen and Open champ Darren Clarke. It may seem simplistic and possibly hasty to immediately dismiss the likes of Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell but 24 years is some stat and I'm not going to go against it.

Of those with previous... Donald's form here isn't spectacular and he's returning from a paternity break so he's dismissed. Schwartzel looked the weak link in the South African team at last week's World Cup and he too doesn't boast a great bank of Sun City form. Anders Hansen was a more tempting proposition than the out-of-form Robert Karlsson, but neither have grabbed me, so that just leaves Westwood and Clarke.

Although I'm by no means a massive Westwood fan, given how well he plays the course and how easily he won last year, I couldn't possibly leave him out and he's the main pick but I've also had a saver on Clarke. Dazzler's lost his way after his glorious win at Royal St Georges but he may enjoy a return to the relaxed atmosphere here and he might just make up for his play-off defeat on his last appearance back in 2005.

Selections
Lee Westwood @ [5.2]
Darren Clarke @ [48.0]

Last but not least it's the Chevron World Challenge where the question is, as Dan Geraghty so eloquently put it, to Tiger or not to Tiger?

I'm in the not camp. We've had many a false dawn regarding the return to form of Tiger Woods and his recent performances Down Under could be the latest. He blew his chance at the Australian Open, throwing away the halfway lead, and I think too much has been made of his performance at the Presidents Cup, where the bottom line is, he only managed to win two of a possible five points. Yes he has course form aplenty but at just [4.5] I'm happy to let him go un-backed.

I've made just one play here from the get-go and that's on Paul Casey, who finished third behind McDowell 12 months ago. Casey's had a frustrating season but after a decent effort at the recent HSBC Champions event, he could carry that form forward and finish the year off strongly. There's plenty of coverage on Sky and I'll look to get further involved as the event progresses, who knows, I may even back Woods in-running?

Selection
Paul Casey @ [25.0]

I've received a very unwelcome card through the door informing me that our electric will be cut off for the day on Thursday so that's going to hinder trading somewhat! Hopefully I'll be up and running again on Friday when I'll look to kick off the In-Play Blog.

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