US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 June 2011 /

Paul Krishnamurty picks out three major winners to go to war with at Congressional...

It is impossible to escape the sense of deja vu. For the third time in the last four majors, Rory McIlroy holds a commanding lead after the opening day at Congressional. With his odds shortened to just [3.85], the big question this morning concerns whether history will continue to repeat itself. At St Andrews in last year's Open he followed an opening 63 with 80. At the Masters, he kept it going until Sunday before shooting another catastrophic 80. Will he fare better this time, or is McIlroy doomed to carry the 'bottler' tag forever?

To be clear, nothing should be taken away from yesterday's performance. Six under par in any round at the US Open is an outstanding achievement, and proves once again that McIlroy has the right game for these tough major tests. That round has significantly altered the shape of the leaderboard, leaving the likes of Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Phil Mickelson languishing nine or ten strokes back, with a mountain to climb. Were Rory to hit another 65 today, his lead would probably be unassailable. Moreover, I don't really buy into the 'bottler' theory, and expect an improved performance, with lessons learnt from those recent failures.

Nevertheless, you won't get rich backing players at such short odds after just one round in any tournament, let alone a US Open. This major nearly always sees dramatic change over the weekend, with only one of the last six final round leaders going on to win. Today's pin positions will be unforgiving, and even despite last night's rain, there is a chance the course will become significantly harder as the greens dry out over the weekend. Shots can and will be lost very quickly, and that applies as much to McIlroy as anyone else.

Indeed, the morning of the second day at a US Open is often the best time to open new trades, precisely because we can be pretty certain that scoring conditions will get tougher from here. By the time they begin their rounds this evening, the later starters will have advanced up the leaderboard as others fall away. It is quite possible, for instance, that early front-runner Y E Yang regains the lead without hitting a ball. Their odds will shorten unless McIlroy shoots another great round. There seems to be no particular advantage in relation to the wind speed, so my focus is on these later groups.

Given this major's propensity to favour experienced, proven winners, my recommendation is to back a trio of former major champions. All are due to start their rounds after 6pm UK time, assuming earlier thunderstorms don't cause delays. Firstly reigning champion Graeme McDowell is an obvious pick, after a solid under-par start to his defence. So long as Gmac doesn't throw in the inexplicably poor round that ruined recent challenges at Sawgrass and Celtic Manor recently, he should be there or thereabouts all weekend.

On the same score, Stewart Cink has the right profile for a US Open winner. He's made seven top-20s in this major, and won his sole major title in a similar battle for survival at Turnberry. Just like that occasion, Cink has the experience and temperament to hold his position as others fall away.

Cink delivered for us in yesterday's 3-ball, although on reflection I wrote off Padraig Harrington too quickly in that piece. The rough at Congressional is less penal than in most previous US Opens, so Harrington's trademark inaccuracy off the tee may not be that costly. Instead, the greater emphasis is on the quality of second shots and scrambling around the greens. Pod remains as classy as ever on both counts and again, has the pedigree for this type of test. All three of his major victories came on similarly tough layouts where the name of the game was hanging in there, scrambling pars and making the odd birdie to stay within touching distance.

The trading plan is as follows. Back this trio to return approximately the same amount, as listed below, at odds that combine to around [14.0]. Then place lay orders on each player to retrieve the entire eight unit stake, should any of them shorten to [8.0]. So if one of them hits the target, we're left with a 'free bet', and if more than one of them hits the target we'd be guaranteed to at least double our money. If any of these positions look like bearing fruit, I'll add further advice over the weekend.

Recommended bets

3.5u Graeme McDowell @ [28.0]
2u Stewart Cink @ [48.0]
1.5u Padraig Harrington @ [65.0]

Place order to lay each player 8u @ [8.0]

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