US Open / Steven Rawlings / 19 June 2011 /

With the outright market dead, our man looks at tonight's 2-balls at the US Open

That would appear to be that. For the first time since Tiger Woods was at his absolute peak, a major championship is done and dusted with a round to spare, as Rory McIlroy takes an unassailable eight-shot lead into the final day. Now I've written that, he'd better not collapse as at Augusta, lest I'm accused of jinxing him. Betting interests aside though, would anyone want to see that? Rory's performance has been one of the very finest of all-time - so far second only to Tiger at Pebble Beach in 2000 for my money. He's been simply magnificent, and like Woods, is apparently capable of producing a different level of golf to mere mortals.

Unless laying solid [1.13] chances is your thing, the outright market is dead as a punting heat. At least the 'Without McIlroy' market is competitive, and anyone who took yesterday's advice on Jason Day will have something to cheer on. The other chance to make some cash on the final day lies in the 2-balls. Here's my four best bets of the day.

2u Christo Greyling @ [3.75] (vs Mickelson) (Starts 15.10)

A solid long-term strategy of mine has been to oppose players whose motivation has been known to wane when all is lost. Phil Mickelson has always been a prime candidate in this respect, and after a very disappointing week, is worth taking on at very short odds. His first round was awful, yet thanks to Lefty's genius powers of recovery ended up almost respectable. The second round was much better, but yesterday's 77 was terrible considering the generally decent scoring conditions. Today's round could be quite a chore for Phil, whereas every shot really matters for his opponent. Few people had heard of Christo Greyling before this week, but the higher this South African finishes, the more invites and sponsorship deals he'll receive.

5u Luke Donald @ [1.8] (vs Watson) (Starts 15.40)

This US Open has also been bitterly disappointing for this pair, particularly Luke Donald, whose incredible run of consecutive top-ten finishes seems certain to end. Nevertheless, Luke's rise to number one owes everything to the fact that he very rarely hits a bad round, and he is exactly the type to advance through the field today and register something respectable. Donald would be worth backing at [1.8] against all bar a few players over 18 holes, such is his consistency. Bubba has gone backwards ever since an excellent first 15 holes on Thursday, showing little suitability for this test.

5u Dustin Johnson @ [1.9] (vs Sabbatini) (Starts 17.40)

Opposing Rory Sabbatini when beaten has repeatedly proved a good strategy over the years, although admittedly there are hints that he is a reformed character this season. I would still question his patience though, and wouldn't be in the least surprised to see him hit a bad tempered 80 this evening. Moreover, I like his opponent's progress as this week has gone on. Dustin Johnson has been out of this ever since hitting a triple bogey on the second hole, but otherwise has played pretty well, improving with each round. He could yet finish the tournament under par.

5u Rory McIlroy @ [2.02] (vs Yang) (Starts 20.20)

What a fantastic price! In any other scenario, Rory McIlroy would surely be odds-on for this 2-ball. He's comfortably beaten Y E Yang's score every day, and with all due respect to the major-winning Korean, is considerably superior. Rory is only odds-against because punters fear nerves could get the better of him, as they did at Augusta. I'm not convinced. He's eight shots clear this time, rather than four, on a course where there is little scope for someone putting him under pressure with a low score. I reckon he'll go out and enjoy himself, breaking yet more US Open records in the process.

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